The 2027 Tungsten Deadline: How Almonty Became the West’s Only Answer to China’s Stranglehold

China's export curbs slash tungsten supply, prices surge 900%. Almonty's Sangdong mine and US expansion position it as a critical non-Chinese source for defense and tech.

The global hunt for critical minerals has found its next prize. After lithium and rare earths grabbed the headlines, tungsten is now the commodity commanding attention—and for good reason. With a melting point of 3,422°C and a density of 19.25 grams per cubic centimeter, it remains indispensable for armor-piercing munitions and high-tech manufacturing. But the supply picture has turned alarming. China still controls roughly 85–88% of global output, and Beijing is tightening the screws. Export licenses introduced in February 2025 and a cap limiting shipments to just 15 approved companies since early 2026 have already slashed Chinese tungsten APT exports from 782 tons to a mere 243 tons. The rupture in the supply chain sent spot prices in Rotterdam rocketing to $3,185 per metric ton unit in May—a staggering 900% increase in just twelve months.

That price shock reflects a deeper structural deficit. The West has virtually no domestic production, and South Korea, where Almonty operates its flagship Sangdong mine, relies on China for nearly 70% of its tungsten. The US is set to ban Pentagon purchases of Chinese tungsten from January 1, 2027, an embargo that has thrown the defense and industrial sectors into a scramble for alternative sources. Almonty, once a small explorer, now occupies the central role in this pivot. The company brought the historic Sangdong mine back into production in March 2026 after a 30-year hiatus. With an average ore grade of 0.51%—roughly three times the global average—and a projected mine life of over 45 years, Sangdong is unrivaled among non-Chinese assets. Phase two, due in 2027, will double processing capacity to 1.2 million tons of ore annually and push tungsten output to about 4,600 tons, enough to cover roughly 40% of global demand outside China.

Almonty is not stopping in Korea. In April 2026, the company moved its corporate headquarters from Canada to Dillon, Montana, reinforcing its commitment to a China-free supply chain. It also acquired the Gentung Browns Lake project, a former US mine expected to begin production by the end of 2026. The timing aligns perfectly with the Pentagon’s upcoming ban. A partnership with American Defense International ensures direct access to the US defense establishment. Meanwhile, global tungsten demand is projected to reach 210,000 tons by 2035, while output outside China stagnates amid aging mines and a lack of processing infrastructure.

The market has already priced in this tectonic shift. Almonty’s shares closed at C$24.89 in Toronto, while the US-listed equivalent ended June 15 at $17.91. The stock has gained roughly 428% over the past year and 107% year-to-date, after touching a low of C$4.67 and a peak of C$33.35. The market capitalization stands at about €4.32 billion, and the company now carries a 3.29% weighting in the VanEck Rare Earth ETF—placing it alongside established players like Albemarle. The relative strength index sits at 47.8, signaling neither euphoria nor panic, suggesting the rally has room to run if fundamentals keep improving.

Inside the company, conviction runs deep. Director Mark Trachuk converted options into more than 1.5 million common shares in June, increasing his direct stake by 112% to nearly three million shares. The move to forgo option flexibility for permanent equity underscores management’s confidence in the current valuation and the long-term strategic narrative. That narrative has drawn the attention of short sellers too. The securities lending fee for Almonty stock rose above 4% in mid-June, indicating that institutional hedgers and bears are circling. The stock is entering a more volatile phase, but the fundamental case remains driven by scarcity rather than cyclical commodity prices.

Investors are not betting on next quarter’s tungsten price. They are buying into the construction of a western supply chain before the next crisis hits. With Sangdong ramping up, a US foothold secured, and the 2027 embargo looming as a hard deadline, Almonty presents itself as the only large-scale tungsten producer outside China with a mine in active operation. That reality, more than any near-term earnings beat, is what fuels the stock’s extraordinary run.