The $1.44 Resistance: Why XRP’s Next Move Hinges on a Senate Calendar and a Whale Exodus

GraniteShares makes sixth attempt at 3x leveraged XRP ETF on Nasdaq while Ripple CEO gives CLARITY Act a two-week Senate deadline, with Goldman Sachs holding $154M in spot ETFs.

The clock is running on two fronts for XRP. On Tuesday, GraniteShares is making its sixth attempt to launch triple-leveraged ETFs on the Nasdaq — products that would give US retail investors their first regulated access to 3x daily swings in the token. But the real drama is playing out 400 miles south, in Washington, where Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has given the CLARITY Act a two-week deadline to clear the Senate Banking Committee or face indefinite delay.

A Nasdaq Debut That Keeps Slipping

GraniteShares has pushed back the launch date for its leveraged XRP ETFs five times since early April. The funds, which use swaps and options rather than holding the cryptocurrency directly, aim to deliver three times the daily return — or loss — of XRP. A successful listing would mark a milestone: ProShares pulled a similar product in December 2025 after regulatory pushback, leaving the field open for GraniteShares.

Spot-based XRP ETFs have been trading since November 2025, but the leveraged versions represent a different beast. They open the door for speculative retail bets at a time when the underlying token is struggling to find its footing.

The Senate’s Two-Week Window

Garlinghouse used the Consensus 2026 stage in Miami — where SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Brian Selig were also in attendance — to frame the legislative stakes in stark terms. The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law, already passed the House in July 2025 with a 294-134 vote. But it has stalled in the Senate, most recently over a dispute about stablecoin yields.

A compromise proposal from Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, tabled on May 1, would ban passive interest on stablecoin deposits while allowing activity-based rewards. Bank lobbyists remain unconvinced. Garlinghouse warned that if the Senate Banking Committee doesn’t schedule a markup hearing before the Memorial Day recess on May 21, the odds of passage “drastically” diminish — and the next realistic window would be after the November midterms.

For XRP, the legislation is more than symbolic. It would end the regulatory limbo that has kept institutional investors on the sidelines for years.

The $154 Million Signal from Goldman Sachs

Standard Chartered estimates that a breakthrough in the Senate could unlock between $4 billion and $8 billion in additional ETF inflows by year-end. The foundation is already there: XRP spot ETFs recorded 20 consecutive trading days without a single outflow in April, pulling in roughly $82 million. Cumulative net inflows have reached $1.29 billion.

Goldman Sachs disclosed a position of nearly $154 million in spot XRP ETFs in its Q4 2025 13F filing — spread across products from Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares. That makes the bank the largest known institutional holder of XRP ETFs in the US, accounting for about 73% of the total top-30 exposure of $211 million.

The Q1 2026 filing, due in mid-May, will be the most closely watched in the sector. The Q4 snapshot was taken when XRP was trading above $2. If Goldman held through the subsequent decline to below $1.50, it would send a powerful signal to the market.

Whales Take Control

On-chain data tells a story of concentration. On Binance, 91.4% of all XRP withdrawals from centralized exchanges are whale transfers; retail activity accounts for just 8.4%. Across the entire CEX market, the whale share is above 90% — the highest level since 2024.

Since the start of 2026, 42 new millionaire wallets — addresses holding at least 1 million XRP — have appeared. Glassnode data shows that roughly 60% of the circulating supply, about 36.8 billion XRP, is held at an average cost basis of $1.44. That level has acted as a mechanical resistance zone, with XRP failing to break through it four times this year.

Price Action at a Crossroads

XRP is currently trading at $1.42, just below its 100-day moving average, with a relative strength index of 59 — not yet overbought but showing no signs of momentum. The gap to the 200-day average of $1.78 underscores the persistent weakness. The $1.45 level remains the critical hurdle.

The next two weeks will determine whether the CLARITY Act clears the Senate Banking Committee and unlocks the institutional floodgates — or whether XRP is left to drift until after the elections. For a token that has already shed 26% year-to-date, the answer can’t come soon enough.