Tesla's Q1 Report Looms Amid Record Glut and a Model Farewell

Tesla reports Q1 earnings amid record unsold inventory, analyst warnings, and a strategic shift away from Model S/X production. Key updates on FSD approval and robotaxi progress.

Tesla faces a pivotal moment next week, with its quarterly earnings set against a backdrop of stark analyst warnings and a significant shift in its vehicle lineup. The electric vehicle maker will report first-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, revealing the financial impact of softening demand and a growing inventory of unsold cars.

The company's delivery figures for the period have already set a concerning tone. Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, missing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 372,000 units. More alarmingly, production significantly outpaced sales. With 408,386 vehicles manufactured, the global stockpile of unsold cars swelled by over 50,000 units in the quarter alone, reaching a record 164,000 vehicles. This widening gap between production and deliveries has prompted sharp criticism from Wall Street.

Analysts at JPMorgan, maintaining an "Underweight" rating, reiterated a price target of $145 on April 12, implying a potential 60% decline from current levels. The firm also cut its full-year 2026 earnings per share estimate from $2.00 to $1.80, now below the market consensus of $1.95. An even more bearish view comes from Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who sees Tesla's stock falling to $25, which would represent a 93% drop.

This operational pressure coincides with the end of an era for Tesla's flagship models. The company has officially ceased production of the Model S and Model X, a move CEO Elon Musk in January termed an "honorable farewell." Since early April, no new custom orders have been accepted. With global inventory down to just 596 units—almost exclusively in the U.S.—Tesla has raised prices for the remaining vehicles by $15,000 each. The Model S now starts at $111,380 and the Model X at $116,380.

The freed production capacity at the Fremont plant, originally designed for 100,000 units annually, is slated for a new purpose: manufacturing the Optimus humanoid robot. Tesla ultimately aims for an annual production run of up to one million of these robots.

Beyond vehicle sales, Tesla's energy storage business also showed weakness. Deployments totaled 8.8 GWh for the quarter, a 38% drop from the previous quarter and far below the analyst expectation of 14.4 GWh. For the upcoming earnings report, analysts on average expect a profit of $0.24 per share, a 60% increase from the $0.15 reported a year ago, though estimates range widely from $0.09 to $0.44.

Amid these challenges, Tesla is advancing other projects. On April 10, its Full Self-Driving (FSD) "Supervised" system received its first European type approval from Dutch authorities after 18 months of testing and 1.6 million kilometers driven on EU roads. Tesla began the rollout a day later and expects the approval to be recognized across the European Union by summer 2026. Furthermore, serial production of the "Cybercab" robotaxi is ramping up at Giga Texas, with initial units having rolled off the line in February.

In a separate development, Musk indicated on X that the long-delayed next-generation Roadster will "probably" be unveiled in late April, with serial production expected to begin 12 to 18 months later. Analyst sentiment remains divided ahead of the earnings report, with coverage showing 15 "Strong Buy," 16 "Hold," and 10 "Strong Sell" ratings. The stock has fallen roughly 21% year-to-date, trading well below its 52-week high of 416.90 euros.