Tesla at a Crossroads: Delivery Counts vs. Merger Hopes as Stock Waits for a Spark

Tesla faces mixed Q2 delivery forecasts, Roadster delays, and a looming SpaceX IPO that drains retail investor interest, while a potential merger with SpaceX gains traction.

The electric-vehicle giant finds itself trapped between two very different stories. On one side, near-term delivery numbers and a slowing auto business keep the stock pinned in a narrow range. On the other, a long-shot merger with SpaceX and sweeping AI ambitions offer a tantalising — if uncertain — future. With the shares trading at €351, essentially flat since the start of the year, investors are demanding clarity.

Delivery projections paint a mixed picture

Second-quarter delivery figures are due in early July, and analysts are split not just on the number but on what it means. Barclays expects roughly 418,000 vehicles, citing a recovery in China and Europe. GLJ Research goes slightly higher at 426,000 but warns the increase is merely seasonal and driven by inventory destocking — not a genuine demand rebound. The market will be watching the mix and any commentary on margins.

Tesla is deliberately steering away from its roots as a pure carmaker, pivoting instead toward an ecosystem built on artificial intelligence and robotics. That transformation is expensive. The energy storage division has become a critical buffer, posting a gross margin above 39.5% in the last quarter. Yet installations in the first quarter of 2026 fell to 8.8 gigawatt-hours, a 15% year-on-year decline. Management insists the full year will still beat 2025, but the volatility unnerves shareholders.

Roadster delays and the SpaceX shadow

The long-awaited Roadster, first promised in 2017, has suffered yet another postponement. A public demonstration is now slated for August in Texas, after Elon Musk had previously suggested a May or June reveal. Even that timeline may slip — chief designer Franz von Holzhausen told an event in Austria the unveiling would come "in a few weeks," contradicting the August date. After the demo, Tesla says production will take 12 to 18 months, meaning real deliveries could stretch to 2028. Thousands of customers have placed deposits — $250,000 for the Founders Series — and have little to show for it.

A far bigger distraction is the SpaceX initial public offering, which began trading on the Nasdaq on June 12 at $135 per share, valuing the rocket company at roughly $1.77 trillion. Its market capitalisation has since topped $2 trillion, dwarfing Tesla’s $1.2 trillion. Crucially, SpaceX reserved 30% of its shares for retail investors — triple the usual allocation for an IPO. That has stoked fears that Tesla’s loyal retail base will sell their Tesla holdings to buy into SpaceX. On June 11, the day before the listing, Tesla shares jumped 4.6% to $399.15, only to slip about 2% the following day.

Merger talk gains traction

The possibility of a Tesla-SpaceX combination is no longer a fringe idea. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities puts the probability of a merger within the next twelve months at 80%. Wolfe Research’s Emmanuel Rosner notes that the scenario has “increasingly moved into the mainstream” among institutional investors, with some making it their primary thesis for owning Tesla stock. Rosner points to Musk’s growing voting control — a pure stock swap would give him well over 50% of the combined entity — and argues that fusing Tesla’s real-time driving data with SpaceX’s computing power could create a formidable artificial intelligence platform.

For now, the stock remains in a technical limbo. At €351, it sits just above its 50-day moving average of €342.47 but below the 200-day line at €357.82. The relative strength index at 49.1 signals indecision, while the annualised volatility of over 45% hints at a decisive move ahead. Breaking above the €360 resistance would clear the 200-day line and open the door to a recovery before the July delivery numbers. Without a catalyst — be it a solid delivery beat, a concrete robotaxi update, or a surprising merger announcement — Tesla’s shares may continue to drift, caught between the grind of an industrial transition and the allure of a sci-fi-sized bet.