Tanbreez Offtake Progress and Greenland Capex Define European Lithium’s Near-Term Path

European-Lithium shareholders have received a clear briefing on Critical Metals Corp (CRML) and the Tanbreez project in Greenland, with a focus on the narrowing of the offtake process and concrete numbers for capital needs and timing. The takeaway is that the final contracts should be signed in Q1 2026, and the market is weighing how this execution will play out.

Tanbreez Offtakes Near Completion

• The Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reports that Critical Metals Corp is on track to finalize the remaining 25% of Tanbreez project off-take agreements in Greenland during the current first quarter of 2026.
• Key takeaways include:
• Roughly 75% of the planned Tanbreez production has already been pre-sold.
• The customer base is predominantly located in the United States and Europe.
• The last 25% of volumes are targeted to be contractually bound by the end of Q1 2026.
• The project is again positioned as a cornerstone for Western supply chains.
• Talks regarding potential involvement by the U.S. government are continuing.

European Lithium holds a controlling stake in Critical Metals Corp following the integration of the Wolfsberg lithium project, placing it at the heart of Tanbreez development.

Investment Needs and Schedule

The update provides clearer estimates for the two main capital categories and the project timetable:

• Mine operations capex in Greenland: about $500 million
• Potential investments in downstream processing facilities: over $1 billion
• Planned start of mining activity: 2027
• Expected initiation of production: mid-2028

The plan remains ambitious: Tanbreez is expected to move into production within a few years, while the project’s capacity is being contracted to deliver full utilization.

Market Context and Company Profile

European Lithium closed the session at AUD 0.155 on Saturday. Earlier in December 2025, the stock had touched as high as AUD 0.19. The present level reflects a phase of consolidation after substantial gains in 2025.

The decline from 0.19 to 0.155 appears to the market as a typical step back after initial off-take announcements, as investors shift focus to actual execution. Over the past year, European Lithium’s profile has evolved: it has shifted from a single-project lithium explorer to a vehicle with access to a broader portfolio of critical resources via its stake in Critical Metals Corp.

The company’s 2025 performance was driven largely by Europe’s ReSourceEU strategy and the “China-plus-one” approach in supply chains. The current price level suggests investors are weighing the likelihood that the announced steps will be realized in practice.

Geopolitical and Strategic Context

Underpinning the narrative is ongoing speculation about U.S. involvement. The SMM note about openness to U.S. government capital aligns with earlier discussions that Washington could directly finance or take an equity stake in Greenland projects to mitigate supply-chain risks, potentially through defense or related channels.

Outlook for Q1 2026

The near-term outlook centers on several clear milestones:

• The primary objective is the signing of the remaining 25% of Tanbreez off-take contracts.
• A fully pre-sold project would meaningfully reduce risk.
• Should there be confirmed U.S. government commitments—whether as direct funding or equity participation—they could provide an additional upside driver.

In the near term, market participants are closely watching press flow and updates from Critical Metals Corp., including Nasdaq-related communications. From a technical perspective, reclaiming the roughly 0.17 AUD area would be seen as a positive signal that the broader upward trend remains intact.