Take-Two Stock Climbs 20% in a Month as GTA VI Pre-Orders Push $1 Billion

Unconfirmed $1B pre-order rumor for GTA VI drives Take-Two shares near 52-week high; analysts raise targets to ~$293, but RSI warns of overbought conditions.

An unconfirmed market rumor that Grand Theft Auto VI pre-orders cracked the billion-dollar mark within hours of going live on June 25 has sent Take-Two Interactive shares on a blistering run. The stock closed Thursday at €223.00, just 1.02% below its 52-week high of €225.30 set in October 2025, after adding nearly 20% over the past 30 days — including a 6.70% gain in the last week alone.

Wall Street is wasting no time adjusting its expectations. BTIG Research reiterated its buy rating on July 2 with a price target of $300, while DA Davidson held firm at $300 and BMO Capital Markets sees a fair value of $285. The analyst consensus now stands at $292.88, well above the current share price. Institutional investors, who control 95.46% of the float, are betting almost uniformly on a blockbuster launch. French retailer Cdiscount reported six times more pre-orders for GTA VI in a single day than it typically sees for comparable titles.

An $8 Billion Bet on Digital Distribution

Take-Two’s management has guided for net bookings between $8.0 billion and $8.2 billion in fiscal 2027 — an increase of roughly 20% over the prior year. GAAP net revenue is seen landing between $7.9 billion and $8.1 billion, with the bulk of growth concentrated in the second half of the fiscal year as marketing and the launch collide. The game, arriving November 19, 2026, on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, will be sold exclusively through digital channels; no physical discs are planned. That decision aligns with an industry where digital purchases now account for roughly 85% of all game sales, and it promises higher margins and fewer logistical hurdles on day one.

Pricing is already tilting heavily toward premium editions. Around 72% of pre-order customers have chosen the Ultimate Edition at $100 rather than the standard $80 version; on PlayStation 5 that share jumps to over 81%. If the unofficial $1 billion pre-order figure holds, it would rank among the most successful entertainment launches in history, though Rockstar Games has yet to confirm the number.

Technical Warning Signs Emerge

The blistering pace has pushed the 14-day relative strength index to 72.7, signaling an overbought condition that often precedes a pause or pullback. The stock now trades 13.69% above its 50-day moving average and 12.45% above its 200-day average — both unusually wide gaps. After recovering from a year low of €159.24 in February, the shares are up 3.87% year-to-date and 9.15% over the past twelve months, meaning most of that annual gain was compressed into recent weeks.

Take-Two will report quarterly earnings on August 10, offering the first official look at how pre-order momentum is translating into bookings. Until then, the risk of a sharp correction is real: the stock has climbed too fast, too soon, and the game still has four months to live up to expectations. Meanwhile, the company continues to generate cash from its existing catalog, and a new expansion pack for Mafia is slated for mid-August.