Take-Two’s $277 Price Target Hangs on GTA VI as Earnings Loom

Take-Two stock dips 15% in 2025 but Wall Street sees 33% upside, with GTA VI release in November 2026 as key catalyst. Earnings due May 21.

The countdown to Take-Two Interactive’s fiscal-year results on May 21 is intensifying, but the real prize remains Grand Theft Auto VI. The stock has shed roughly 15% since January, currently trading at €183.40 — nearly eight percent below its 200-day moving average. Yet Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish, with 26 of 28 analysts rating the shares a buy and a consensus price target of $277.10, implying a 32.84% upside.

Earnings Expectations and the GTA VI Catalyst

For the quarter just ended, the market anticipates earnings per share of $0.57. Take-Two has beaten estimates in each of the past four quarters, and the forward-looking numbers are even more striking. Analysts project earnings of $2.44 per share for the current fiscal year, jumping to $6.70 the following year — a trajectory that hinges almost entirely on the November 2026 release of GTA VI.

The company’s recurring revenue stream remains robust. Virtual currencies and subscriptions now account for 80% of net bookings, providing a stable base while the industry awaits the blockbuster. U.S. video game spending rose 12% in March, reinforcing the favorable backdrop.

Institutional Shifts and Key Price Levels

Institutional investors hold over 95% of Take-Two’s shares, but a notable rebalancing is underway. Vanguard and BlackRock have been adding to their positions, while Saudi Arabia’s PIF liquidated its entire stake of more than 11 million shares.

On the charts, the stock finds initial support near $214. A breakout above $219.26 would signal a fresh uptrend. The stock has gained roughly 7% over the past month, though it remains about a fifth below its 52-week high.

Analyst Moves and the Marketing Countdown

Major banks have recently adjusted their targets. UBS lifted its price objective to $300 with a “Buy” rating, while Morgan Stanley raised its to $280 (“Overweight”). Wells Fargo trimmed its target slightly to $293 but maintained an “Overweight” stance. Jefferies reaffirmed its buy recommendation in late April.

The marketing campaign for GTA VI is expected to begin this summer, with the release date set for November 19, 2026. The May 21 earnings call will likely provide fresh details on the timeline, offering investors the next major catalyst. For now, the stock sits just below its 200-day moving average, waiting for the next chapter to begin.