Take-Two Interactive: A Tale of Two Trades as GTA VI Looms

Take-Two sees mixed institutional trading as 28 analysts remain bullish ahead of May 21 earnings, with GTA VI launch expected to drive a major turnaround.

The stock market often tells two stories at once. For Take-Two Interactive, the narrative is split between institutional conviction and selective retreat. While the broader analyst community remains overwhelmingly bullish, one of the company’s long-standing shareholders has quietly slashed its position.

Ninety One UK offloaded 769,716 shares in the first quarter of 2026, trimming its stake by nearly 40%. The move stands in stark contrast to AQR Capital Management, which more than tripled its holdings in the prior quarter by adding over 700,000 shares. Across the institutional landscape, the balance tips in favor of buyers: 528 funds increased their positions while 448 reduced them, leaving a net inflow that masks some unease among the largest holders.

The stock itself has been on a recovery path. After touching a February low, shares have climbed roughly 15% from that trough, though they remain about 15% below their 52-week high. On Tuesday, the stock traded at €183.90 in Europe, following a 3.9% jump on Wall Street to start the week. Over the past 30 days, the gain stands at approximately 9%, but year-to-date the picture is less flattering — a decline of roughly 14%.

Analyst Conviction Holds Firm

Jefferies reaffirmed its buy rating on Monday, joining a chorus of support that has become nearly unanimous. Of the 28 analysts covering Take-Two, 26 recommend buying the stock. The average price target sits at $277.10, with the most optimistic forecast reaching $305 — implying substantial upside from current levels. Only one analyst currently advises selling.

That level of consensus is rare, but it hinges on a single catalyst: the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.

The Accounting Mirage

Take-Two’s upcoming quarterly report, due after the US market close on May 21, is expected to look weak on the surface. Analysts project earnings per share to fall nearly 47% year-over-year, with revenue estimated at roughly $1.55 billion. But the weakness is largely a bookkeeping artifact.

Three factors are compressing reported earnings: amortization of intangible assets tied to the Zynga acquisition, capitalized development costs for GTA VI — carrying an estimated budget of $2 billion — and internal licensing arrangements. The development spending has largely already flowed out in cash terms; it only hits the profit-and-loss statement upon the game’s release. Similarly, the negative operating margin that has weighed on the company is primarily an accounting effect rather than a cash-flow problem.

For the full fiscal year, Take-Two targets revenue between $6.55 billion and $6.60 billion, with operating cash flow of $450 million. Analysts expect full-year earnings of $3.91 per share, representing a more than 90% jump from the prior year. Looking further ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 28% next year, while free cash flow could multiply to roughly $2.7 billion by 2031.

The May 21 Pivot Point

All eyes are now on the May 21 earnings release, when management will present results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026. More importantly, investors expect concrete details on the release timeline for GTA VI. The company’s management has yet to commit to a specific launch date, and the stock’s trajectory over the coming months will largely depend on what they reveal.

The multi-billion-dollar question is whether the development costs that have depressed reported earnings will finally begin to convert into revenue. With the cash already spent and the accounting drag set to reverse upon launch, the payoff could be substantial — but only if the release calendar holds.