T1 Energy Shares: Record Output Meets Valuation Concerns
27.01.2026 - 07:46:03The equity of T1 Energy has been a standout performer over the past year, fueled by the massive power demands of new AI data centers. However, the stock's momentum is now stalling. Despite a significant operational expansion and non-stop production lines in Texas, market participants are growing anxious that the company's valuation may have sprinted ahead of its fundamental reality.
The path forward for the share price is now exceptionally challenging. With the current market capitalization already exceeding consensus analyst estimates, mere growth may no longer suffice. To reignite the upward trend, the company's upcoming quarterly results will need to significantly surpass what are already aggressive market expectations. Failing this, the stock risks entering a prolonged period of consolidation following its substantial rally.
This cooling sentiment is evident in recent trading activity. Shares opened at €6.90 on Monday, representing a decline of roughly 5% from their 52-week high of €7.30. While certain firms, including Needham, have modestly raised their price targets, the broader analyst consensus points to limited near-term potential.
Operational Strength at Full Throttle
From an operational standpoint, the solar specialist is firing on all cylinders. Recent data underscores the remarkable speed at which it is ramping up U.S. capacity. The company's "G1_Dallas" facility in Wilmer, Texas, is now reportedly operating 24 hours a day. This billion-dollar investment, staffed by 1,200 workers, churns out 20,000 solar modules daily. The core fundamental driver remains robust: skyrocketing electricity demand from data centers continues to ensure the company's order books are full.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying T1 Energy?
Navigating a Regulatory Tightrope
Yet, production records alone do not guarantee profitability. Margins remain heavily dependent on U.S. tax subsidies, placing T1 Energy in a delicate regulatory dance. The company is currently maneuvering through new U.S. Treasury Department guidelines designed to cut subsidies for firms with more than a 25% Chinese ownership stake.
Market observers interpret the current corporate structure as a strategic move to secure this crucial funding. With an approximate 17% stake held by Trina Solar, T1 Energy stays below the critical threshold. Furthermore, reports indicate the core technology is licensed through a Singapore-based unit, a tactic intended to avoid classification as a "Foreign Entity of Concern." This strategy is viewed as essential for maintaining a competitive edge against rivals like Canadian Solar.
Analysts Signal Caution
The disconnect between the stock's market value and expert expectations is becoming more pronounced. Even after reporting a 59% revenue surge in the third quarter of 2025, the shares are trading above the average analyst price target in U.S. dollar terms. This suggests that much of the positive news may already be reflected in the current valuation.
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