T-Mobile US Earnings Could Be the Cure for Deutsche Telekom’s Bruised Stock

T-Mobile US quarterly results will test merger jitters as analysts expect strong growth and a possible guidance upgrade, key for Deutsche Telekom's stock recovery.

The fate of Deutsche Telekom’s share price rests tonight on a single earnings call in New York. When T-Mobile US releases its quarterly results at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, investors in the Bonn-based parent will be watching closely — the US subsidiary now generates the lion’s share of group operating profit.

What the Street Expects

Analysts have penciled in robust numbers. The consensus among 20 analysts points to earnings of $2.01 per share, with revenue forecast at roughly $23 billion — a year-on-year increase of about 10 percent. The real focus, however, is on whether management will raise its full-year guidance. T-Mobile US currently targets adjusted operating earnings of up to $37.5 billion for 2026. An upward revision would provide a powerful tailwind for Deutsche Telekom’s stock.

Merger Jitters Weigh Heavy

The stock has taken a beating in recent weeks, shedding nearly 17 percent over the past 30 days. At around €27, it sits barely above its 52-week low of €26.45 and more than 21 percent below its yearly peak. The trigger? A Bloomberg report that Deutsche Telekom is exploring a full merger with its US subsidiary through a new holding company. While talks remain at an early stage and would require political backing, the mere speculation has spooked investors.

The sell-off stands in stark contrast to analyst sentiment. Barclays’ Mathieu Robilliard maintains an “Overweight” rating with a €39.50 price target, and UBS has also reiterated a buy recommendation. The gap between analyst optimism and market reality is unusually wide.

A Strong Signal from Management

T-Mobile US’s board has already thrown its weight behind shareholder returns. The company recently expanded its 2026 share buyback program, now planning to return up to $18.2 billion to investors by year-end. That vote of confidence suggests management sees the underlying business as fundamentally sound, despite the noise around a potential merger.

What the May Report Must Deliver

Deutsche Telekom’s own quarterly report is due on May 13. The board has set a full-year target of €47.4 billion in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow of nearly €20 billion. If the upcoming T-Mobile US numbers confirm strong growth and an upgraded outlook, the pressure from merger speculation should ease — and the stock could begin to recover the ground lost over the past month. Tonight’s earnings call provides the first concrete test of that thesis.