Strategy Shares Face Potential Multi-Billion Dollar Exodus

Strategy US5949724083

A looming review by index provider MSCI has placed shares of Strategy under significant selling pressure. The central question is whether companies holding digital assets representing over 50% of their balance sheet will remain eligible for inclusion in major indices. Market experts warn that an exclusion could trigger automated, institutional selling worth billions of dollars.

A stark divergence exists between the stock's performance and Wall Street's outlook. Despite the equity losing more than 46% of its value over the past year and trading near $156, thirteen analysts maintain buy ratings. Their price targets range from $465 to $485, suggesting a theoretical upside potential approaching 200 percent.

Market participants, however, are focused on shareholder dilution. Critics highlight that recent share sales to fund Bitcoin purchases occurred below the net asset value (NAV). This technically dilutes value for existing shareholders, even as the gross amount of Bitcoin held per share increases.

The Multi-Billion Dollar Index Exclusion Threat

The core risk stems from MSCI's ongoing eligibility assessment. Prediction markets currently estimate a 75% probability of Strategy's removal from relevant indices by early 2026, with a formal decision anticipated in mid-January 2026.

Analysts at JPMorgan have quantified the danger. Exclusion from MSCI indices alone would force passive fund outflows of approximately $2.8 billion. The risk extends further. Should other index providers like FTSE Russell follow suit, the total institutional exodus could reach $8.8 billion. While the $2.8 billion figure represents a specific MSCI risk, the larger sum outlines a contagion scenario across the entire index ecosystem.

Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation Continues Unabated

Despite the falling share price, Strategy's management remains committed to its core tactic. Between December 22 and 28, 2025, the company utilized its "At-The-Market" (ATM) program to raise $108.8 million through the sale of new shares. This capital was immediately deployed into the cryptocurrency market.

The company purchased an additional 1,229 Bitcoin at an average price of $88,568. This brings its total holdings to a substantial 672,497 Bitcoin, with an aggregate acquisition value of roughly $50.44 billion. In 2025 alone, Strategy deployed nearly half of its total cumulative crypto investment capital, underscoring an aggressive expansion strategy even as its stock price declines.

Strong Liquidity Provides a Cushion

Amid the volatility, Strategy's balance sheet offers protection against immediate solvency concerns. Because the company holds primarily unsecured debt, lenders cannot force liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings even if prices fall. Furthermore, Strategy maintains a cash reserve of about $2.19 billion.

This capital buffer is sufficient to cover interest payments and operational expenses for nearly three years. Consequently, the company possesses significant runway to navigate the period of uncertainty leading up to and beyond the mid-January 2026 MSCI decision without facing a liquidity crisis.