Strategy’s Index Status: A Tale of Two Benchmarks

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The technology firm Strategy Inc. has received a crucial vote of confidence from one major index provider, even as it faces a looming threat from another. This dichotomy underscores the ongoing market debate about the company's identity as a leveraged Bitcoin play rather than a conventional software business.

Friday's annual rebalancing confirmed Strategy will remain a component of the Nasdaq 100 index. This retention is a significant relief for investors, as an ejection would have triggered forced selling by the multitude of passive funds and ETFs that track this prominent technology benchmark. While other notable companies, including Biogen and GlobalFoundries, were removed, Strategy kept its place.

This continued inclusion guarantees a baseline of demand from index-tracking investment vehicles. However, a substantial new challenge is scheduled for January 2026. Index provider MSCI is reviewing potential rules that could exclude companies holding digital assets representing over 50% of their total balance sheet from its global indices. For a company like Strategy, whose value is tightly linked to its Bitcoin treasury, this represents a material risk.

Despite the positive Nasdaq news, Strategy's shares closed Friday's session down approximately 3.6% at €150.50. The stock has declined more than 22% over the past 30 days and is down roughly 49% year-to-date, trading just above its recent 52-week low and well below its key moving averages.

Unwavering Bitcoin Focus Amid Market Pressure

The company's direction remains unequivocal. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor reinforced this stance following the Nasdaq announcement, stating on X (formerly Twitter) that Strategy would "continue to accumulate Bitcoin until the market stops complaining." A pivot from this core strategy is not under consideration.

Consequently, the stock's performance is highly correlated with Bitcoin's price movements. The recent share price weakness mirrors a correction in the cryptocurrency, which has fallen from its October high near $126,000 to approximately $90,000. The parallel decline highlights how Strategy's market valuation is primarily a reflection of sentiment in the digital asset sector.

To address concerns regarding its debt and financial obligations, Strategy recently completed a capital raise of $1.44 billion. CEO Phong Le referenced "FUD" (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) about the company's ability to meet its commitments, emphasizing that the new capital is intended to secure debt servicing and other liabilities even amid heightened Bitcoin price volatility.

From Software to Digital Asset Treasury

The company's transformation, finalized with its renaming from MicroStrategy to Strategy Inc. in August 2025, is complete. Its original identity as a business software provider has receded into the background for most market participants. The focus is now squarely on its massive Bitcoin holdings, raising persistent questions about the degree of its decoupling from traditional operational metrics.

Analysts have long criticized the firm for trading more like a leveraged Bitcoin ETF than a standard software enterprise. This very debate underpins the significance of its index classifications. Its continued presence in the Nasdaq 100, for now, affirms its status as a technology stock and distinguishes it from pure investment vehicles.

Historically, the market valued Strategy shares at a premium to its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV). This premium has contracted significantly during the latest crypto downturn. Bitcoin's more than 26% drop from its October peak directly pressures Strategy's market capitalization, testing the resolve of institutional investors tied to this unique structure.

January's MSCI Decision: A Multi-Billion Dollar Question

All eyes are now on MSCI's anticipated ruling in January. Analysts at JPMorgan warn that a potential exclusion of Strategy from relevant indices could trigger outflows of up to $2.8 billion, primarily from index-adjacent and rules-based investment strategies.

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock appears vulnerable. It is currently trading about 22% below its 50-day moving average and nearly 47% below its 200-day moving average. Simultaneously, a high Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading above 80 indicates an overbought or strongly trending condition, coupled with very high 30-day volatility annualized at roughly 59%.

The dominant factor remains its tether to Bitcoin. Should the cryptocurrency fail to maintain support around the $90,000 level, it would likely exert further downward pressure on Strategy's shares.

In summary, while retention in the Nasdaq 100 provides temporary stability, it does not alter the fundamental narrative. Strategy remains a highly concentrated Bitcoin vehicle, its market value overwhelmingly dependent on the cryptocurrency's price trajectory and broader acceptance—and, in a matter of weeks, on the outcome of a critical MSCI review.