Strategy’s Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation Faces Shareholder Dilution Concerns

Strategy US5949724083

The company known as Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, continues to double down on its substantial Bitcoin bet. For the second consecutive week, the firm has executed billion-dollar purchases of the cryptocurrency. However, a critical internal metric has turned negative for the first time, casting a shadow over the aggressive strategy and raising questions about shareholder value dilution beyond the sheer scale of the holdings.

The latest acquisition spree was primarily funded by issuing new shares. Strategy sold 4,789,664 common shares through an at-the-market offering program, raising approximately $888.2 million. This was supplemented by capital from the sale of preferred securities:
* STRD: roughly $82.2 million
* STRF: about $18 million
* STRK: approximately $0.6 million

Despite these transactions, as of December 14, the company still has $12.56 billion in MSTR shares available for issuance under its existing ATM program. This initiative is part of the ambitious "42/42" plan, through which Strategy aims to raise a total of $84 billion in capital by 2027.

A Second Billion-Dollar Bitcoin Purchase in Weeks

Between December 8 and 14, Strategy purchased 10,645 Bitcoin at an average price of $92,098 per coin. This follows the addition of approximately 10,624 BTC for $962.7 million in the preceding week, demonstrating an unwavering commitment to its accumulation tactic.

The company's total treasury now stands at 671,268 BTC. The cumulative investment for this position is about $50.33 billion, resulting in an average cost basis of $74,972 per Bitcoin. This hoard represents over 3% of the entire potential Bitcoin supply of 21 million coins. At current market prices, the treasury is valued near $60 billion, implying an unrealized book gain of roughly $9.7 billion.

Key Metrics Signal Growing Market Skepticism

As Bitcoin holdings expand, internal gauges of efficiency are flashing warning signs. The BTC Yield, which measures the amount of Bitcoin backing each MSTR share, has turned negative. Strategy reported a quarterly BTC Yield of -1% for the latest period, meaning the Bitcoin per outstanding share has decreased since the end of September 2025.

This development is significant because the BTC Yield had remained consistently positive on an annual basis since 2020 and on a quarterly basis since April 2023. The negative shift weakens the argument that new share issuances are inherently value-accretive for existing shareholders.

Concurrently, the market's premium on Strategy's Bitcoin holdings has collapsed. The company now trades at a premium of only about 16% above the value of its Bitcoin treasury, a stark drop from levels exceeding 240% seen in November 2024.

On a simple basis, excluding preferred shares and convertible notes, Strategy's market capitalization has even fallen below the value of its Bitcoin position. The multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) now fluctuates in a range of approximately 0.85 to 1.10, indicating investors are appraising the business model far more conservatively than they were a year ago.

Index Support and Uncertainty

The company has received some supportive news from index providers. Following its annual review, the Nasdaq confirmed Strategy will remain a constituent of the Nasdaq 100. The decision, published on December 13, takes effect before market open on December 22.

However, its future in the MSCI USA Index is uncertain. MSCI has proposed excluding companies with more than 50% of their assets in digital currencies. Strategy responded with a 12-page letter to the MSCI Equity Index Committee, criticizing the proposal as "misguided," "discriminatory," "arbitrary," and "impractical." MSCI will announce its final decision by January 15, 2026, which will be crucial for the index's composition ahead of the next rebalancing in February.

Share Price Under Significant Pressure

Despite the continued Bitcoin buying and its maintained Nasdaq 100 status, Strategy's shares are in a pronounced downtrend. The stock closed at €142.40, marking a decline of approximately 51% since the start of the year. Over a 12-month period, the loss deepens to about 63%, leaving the price nearly two-thirds below its 52-week high of €391.80.

From a technical perspective, the trend is bearish. The share price trades well below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 84.2 points to an overbought condition coupled with high volatility. In the short term, the equity is hovering just above its recent annual low.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Bet Amid Dilution

Strategy persists uncompromisingly with its Bitcoin acquisition strategy, systematically expanding its holdings by billions of dollars. Yet, the first-ever negative BTC Yield and the sharply contracted mNAV premium reveal growing market concern over persistent shareholder dilution. The upcoming pivotal milestones are the MSCI decision in mid-January 2026 and the future price trajectory of Bitcoin itself, which will directly influence the stock's attractiveness relative to the underlying coin holdings.