Speculation Mounts Over Potential ASML Stock Split Amid AI-Driven Surge

ASML USN070592100

ASML Holding NV's shares have soared to price levels that present a practical challenge for many retail investors. With the stock trading well above $1,300, market chatter is intensifying around the possibility of a stock split. While such a move would make the equity appear more affordable, the underlying driver of its valuation is a fundamental story rooted in the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom, which is filling the Dutch chip equipment maker's order books at an unprecedented rate.

The recent strength in ASML's share price is supported by robust financial performance. Investors have responded positively to the annual figures released in late January, which demonstrated a clear acceleration in business momentum. The order intake for the fourth quarter of 2025 was particularly striking, reaching a historic high of €13.2 billion. Of this total, €7.4 billion came from high-margin extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems. This surge propelled the company's total order backlog to €38.8 billion by year-end.

Shareholders Gain on Multiple Fronts

Beyond capital appreciation, ASML is committed to returning value directly to its shareholders. The dividend for 2025 is slated to increase by 17% to €7.50 per share. The next interim dividend payment of €1.60 is already scheduled for February 18, 2026. Furthermore, the company is implementing a new share buyback program to provide long-term support for the share price. This program, with a volume of up to €12 billion, is set to run until the end of 2028.

High Price Level Sparks Split Discussions

A near 90% advance over a twelve-month period has significantly expanded ASML's market capitalization. Market observers often interpret such a high nominal share price as a classic precursor to a potential stock split. While a split would not alter the company's fundamental value, it would lower the per-share price optically, potentially enhancing accessibility for individual investors.

The core engine behind this performance remains ASML's monopoly in EUV lithography systems. The production of the most advanced high-performance chips, which are essential for AI applications, is virtually impossible without these machines.

Strategic Pivot: AI Offsets China Slowdown

A significant shift in revenue streams is anticipated for 2026. Business with China is expected to decline, likely accounting for only about 20% of total sales—a drop from 33% in 2025. However, the worldwide build-out of AI infrastructure is projected to fully compensate for this reduction.

Analysts anticipate this "AI upcycle" will persist well into 2027, driven by major contract manufacturers like TSMC ramping up their capacity for 2-nanometer production. Consequently, ASML's management forecasts revenue for 2026 to rise to a range of €34 billion to €39 billion.

@ boerse-global.de | USN070592100 SPECULATION