SpaceX Stock Teeters on a Tightrope as Earnings, Lockup, and Launch Woes Collide

SpaceX shares trade near 52-week low after 45% drop from peak. With lockup expiration on Aug 7 and short interest at 30%, next two weeks crucial.

SpaceX shares have been on a wild ride since their June 12 debut, and the next two weeks could set the trajectory for months to come. After opening at $135 apiece, the stock soared to a high of $225.64 before slumping roughly 45% from that peak — at one point falling below the IPO price. On Tuesday, the shares traded at €106.86 in pre-market action, up 1.81%, but that slight bounce does little to mask the broader pain: the stock sits just 1.89% above the 52-week low hit on July 20, and it closed Monday at €104.96 — a whisker above that floor. The sell-off has wiped more than $1 trillion from market cap, sliding SpaceX from the fifth-largest US company by market value to eighth place.

The backdrop to this rut is a string of operational stumbles that have shaken confidence in the company’s core business. A Starship test flight on July 16 aborted when four of 33 engines failed to ignite, pushing the next attempt to July 23. Then, on July 20, a rare Falcon-9 abort at Vandenberg saw engines briefly fire and then shut down, forcing a Starlink mission to be postponed. Two launch failures in one week is an unwelcome pattern for a company whose reputation rests on reliability — and it puts pressure on the launch and space segment that was supposed to be the steady anchor of SpaceX’s group results.

The Lockup Clock Is Ticking

All eyes are now on August 4, when SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a public company after the close. A webcast is set for 4:30 p.m. Eastern. The numbers themselves — Q1 revenue of $4.69 billion, Q2 expected around $6.93 billion, and a loss of $4.3 billion for 2025 — will be scrutinized, especially as Starlink, with 10.3 million subscribers and 50% revenue growth, tries to offset the heavy losses from the AI and xAI divisions. But the real anxiety centres on what happens two trading days later: the expiration of the first lockup period. Roughly 911.5 million shares — about 20% of insider holdings, worth an estimated $109 billion at current prices — become tradable. A further 10% tranche will remain locked unless the stock recovers above $175.50. Elon Musk’s own shares are blocked until June 2027.

The lockup overhang is already feeding a bearish frenzy. According to S3 Partners, short interest stands at 192 million shares, representing about 30% of the free float. Short sellers have racked up $8.7 billion in unrealized gains, and roughly half of the tradable float is lent out — a clear signal that speculators are betting heavily on further declines. Critics like Whitney Tilson have called the valuation "dramatically excessive" at roughly 92 times revenue, while economist Peter Schiff declared the AI stock bubble has already popped.

Bullish Bets Amid the Carnage

Not everyone is running for cover. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought 170,634 SpaceX shares on July 20 for about $20.5 million, adding to a position that already exceeded 4 million shares. Wood values the company at $2.5 trillion to $3.1 trillion, pointing to the long-term potential of orbital data centers. On Wall Street, Morgan Stanley holds a $300 price target, JPMorgan rates the stock overweight at $225, and Piper Sandler is more cautious at $156 with a neutral stance. The consensus sits near $225. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports of a Pentagon cloud and AI infrastructure contract worth billions of dollars could provide a fresh catalyst — if it materializes.

For now, SpaceX shares are caught between the gravity of near-term headwinds and the gravitational pull of a long-term narrative that still commands believers. The August 4 earnings print and the subsequent lockup unlock will go a long way toward deciding which force prevails.