SpaceX Stock Slides Into a Crucial July Test as Starship Delays Meet a Wall of Supply

SpaceX shares close below IPO price of US$135 after Starship test aborts; stock down 40% from peak, with $123 billion in locked-up shares set to become tradable.

SpaceX’s latest share slump is now colliding with a more practical issue: whether the company can get Starship off the pad cleanly. On 16 July 2026, the 13th test flight of the rocket was aborted seconds before liftoff at Starbase, Texas, after four of the 33 Raptor-3 engines on the Super Heavy booster failed to ignite during the startup sequence, according to Ars Technica. An automatic safety system shut the launch down. Elon Musk said two Raptor engines would be replaced and that another attempt should come “hopefully in a few days,” likely early next week.

The mission was supposed to deploy 20 Starlink-V3 satellites as mass simulators and test a Raptor relight in space. It was also the first flight of the V3 version since SpaceX’s June IPO. That matters for sentiment, because the rocket program is one of the company’s clearest operational milestones, and the next launch could help determine whether investors focus on engineering progress or on the stock’s recent slide.

On the market, the reaction has been brutal by any normal standard. CNBC reported that the shares closed on Nasdaq at US$131.11 on 16 July, the first time they finished below the US$135 IPO price. In after-hours trading, the stock briefly fell to US$124. Earlier, on 15 July, the shares had already touched an intraday low of US$132.15 before ending the day at US$135.27. Either way, the message from traders has been the same: the post-listing euphoria has gone.

The retreat has been fast. From the record US$225.64 set on 16 June, the stock is now down about 40% to 42%, depending on the reference point used. In euro terms, it has traded at EUR116.26 and EUR114.64, leaving it just above its 52-week low of EUR115.70 on 15 July 2026 and EUR114.30 on 16 July 2026. NBC News said the stock has fallen in 14 of 23 sessions since the 12 June debut. The company’s market value, which at one point topped about US$2.6 trillion and was described by NBC as having peaked at roughly US$3 trillion, is now around US$1.78 trillion to US$1.81 trillion. Musk’s fortune has also come down sharply, with reports putting it at roughly US$856 billion or about US$850 billion, versus US$1.32 trillion at the high.

The listing itself was huge. SpaceX went public on 12 June 2026 through a capital raise of US$75 billion at a valuation of US$1.75 trillion, and the opening trade came at US$150. The shares then surged above US$225 before reversing hard. The company’s 2025 financials have done little to calm nerves: it reported revenue of US$18.7 billion, up 33% from the prior year, but also a net loss of US$4.9 billion. Separately, the second source said the first quarter of 2026 brought another US$4.3 billion loss. SpaceX also placed US$25 billion of bonds in June to help fund AI infrastructure.

Pressure is likely to build further from the shareholder structure. After the first quarterly report, expected in early August, 911.5 million previously locked-up shares are due to become tradable, worth about US$123 billion. If the price climbs above US$175.50, a further 455.8 million shares could be released under the lockup terms. The secondary source said those shares could push the free float to around 40% by 8 December, while Musk’s own roughly 60% stake stays locked until mid-2027. The first article noted that 455.8 million additional shares may follow if the US$175.50 threshold is crossed.

Short sellers have not missed the move. TipRanks said short interest has jumped from about 40 million shares to roughly 185 million, or close to 29% of the float. That represents around US$25 billion in value. Ortex estimated the paper profit for shorts at US$8.7 billion, while S3 Partners put an earlier figure at US$3.88 billion. Invezz also said about 29% of the free float is sold short, and the first article cited the same 185 million shares and US$25 billion figure. One report added that roughly US$5 billion of new short positions were built in the past week.

Still, the broker community has not turned decisively bearish. One tally shows 27 of 32 analysts recommending the shares, while another puts the count at 23 of 29. The consensus target sits between US$236 and US$247, with IBTimes citing an average of US$242. JPMorgan’s Seth Seifman and Doug Anmuth both kept their positive view, with Anmuth at US$225. Needham raised its target to US$250, Morgan Stanley sees US$300, and Raymond James’ Brian Gesuale stands out with a US$800 target. On the cautious side, CFRA’s Keith Snyder has a rare sell rating and a US$115 target, while Morningstar is at US$63. Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler called the decline a buying opportunity, and Dan Ives of Yorkville remained constructive on the AI and space businesses.

There is still a lot riding on the next launch. SpaceX has said it has invested more than US$15 billion in Starship development and holds a US$4 billion NASA contract for a lunar landing from 2028. Starlink is also part of the investment case, with the business generating about US$11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. Beyond that, new GPU rental agreements with Anthropic and Google are being used to support forecasts that revenue could rise from around US$18 billion to as much as US$62 billion next year. For now, though, the market is watching a simpler question: can Flight 13 fly, and can the stock stop drifting lower before the lockup wave hits?