SpaceX Stock's Slide Accelerates After Starship Abort, But Wall Street Remains Deeply Divided

SpaceX shares fell 5.39% after Starship test abort, extending a 34.8% monthly decline. Analysts have wildly divergent price targets from $156 to $800, as near-term headwinds clash with long-term growth ambitions.

SpaceX finds itself caught between a long-term vision that has analysts projecting a stock price potentially eight times higher than its current trading level, and a string of near-term headwinds that just got worse. The most immediate came Thursday, when the company's 13th integrated Starship test flight was automatically terminated at T-minus-zero after four of 33 Raptor engines failed to ignite. The market's reaction was swift: shares closed Friday at €108.40, down 5.39% in a single session and within striking distance of the 52-week low of €107.34 set on July 17.

The rocket setback compounds an already brutal slide. Over the past seven trading days, SpaceX has lost 14.78% of its value; the one-month decline stands at a staggering 34.80%. From the record high of €194.46 reached on June 16, the stock has surrendered 44.26% — a rout that has erased the bulk of the post-IPO euphoria that followed the company's June 12 debut.

That IPO, priced at $135 per share, now casts a psychological shadow. In dollar terms, the stock slipped below that reference price for the first time on Wednesday and closed below it for six consecutive sessions through Friday. The threshold was already fragile by the time the Starship abort added fresh selling pressure.

Elon Musk confirmed that two of the failed engines will be replaced, and a new launch attempt is scheduled for Monday, July 20. The speed of the turnaround reflects SpaceX's iterative development philosophy — test often, fix fast — but the market has shown little patience for engineering setbacks. Starship is central to the company's highest-growth ambitions: expanding the Starlink constellation to support direct-to-cell mobile service, and deploying a separate network of satellites for AI data processing. The first Starlink satellites are slated to fly aboard Starship before year-end, followed by regular missions from a new Florida launch pad.

Yet the recent weakness is not solely a Starship story. Analysts are openly debating the stock's fair value, and the divergence is unusually wide. Piper Sandler initiated coverage last week with a neutral rating and a $156 price target, implying limited upside even from the previous $143 level. The firm cited "idiosyncratic short-term headwinds" including staggered lock-up expirations for early investors and employees beginning in early August, and uncertainty over a potential Tesla acquisition. Skepticism about SpaceX's plan for orbital AI data centers also gave Piper Sandler pause, with analysts noting the market needs time to evaluate what they called a "truly world-changing approach."

That cautious stance stands in sharp contrast to the bullish consensus. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and other large houses assigned buy-equivalent ratings after the post-IPO quiet period ended in early July, with price targets ranging from $205 to $800. JPMorgan reaffirmed an overweight rating with a $225 target shortly before Piper Sandler entered the fray. According to Yahoo Finance data, 27 of 31 analysts currently rate the stock a buy or strong buy, and the average price target sits at $242.

The reasoning behind the bulls' optimism is not without foundation, but the bears can point to the balance sheet. Despite its market profile, SpaceX remains a loss-making enterprise. The company's AI segment is expected to post a $6.4 billion loss in 2025, with another $2.5 billion in red ink projected for the first quarter of 2026 alone. For the full year 2025, SpaceX forecasts a net loss of $4.9 billion. Piper Sandler summed up the dilemma neatly: long-term upside is real, but reliable near-term cash flow projections are elusive as long as the end markets for space-based AI and connectivity remain immature.

Technical indicators offer little comfort. The relative strength index sits at 34.6, edging into oversold territory without yet delivering a clear reversal signal. The annualized 30-day volatility of 93.16% underscores just how turbulent trading has become since the IPO.

For shareholders, the calendar brings two pivotal events in quick succession. Monday's Starship reattempt will test whether investor confidence can be restored after Thursday's abort. Then comes the early-August expiration of lock-up agreements on shares held by employees and early backers — a potential surge in available stock that could fuel further selling pressure. With the 52-week low already within touching distance and the IPO price breached, SpaceX is navigating a stretch that will separate believers from skeptics.