SpaceX Stock Faces Divergent Forces: $52 Billion Server Deal Offsets Starship Setback and Lockup Jitters

SpaceX shares edge up but remain near 52-week low after Starship test abort, as $52B server deal with Foxconn and AI pivot offer mixed outlook. Analysts split on fair value.

SpaceX shareholders are navigating a starkly split narrative. The company has just inked a colossal server-manufacturing deal with Foxconn worth roughly $52 billion, yet its stock remains pinned near a 52-week low after a failed Starship test and the looming expiry of an IPO lockup period. Shares edged up 1.31% on Monday to €109.82, but that recovery is a sliver of comfort given a 30% decline over the past month and a 43% plunge from the June all-time high.

The abort of the thirteenth Starship test flight on July 16 injected the latest dose of uncertainty. An automatic shutdown struck seconds after engine ignition, with four of the 33 Raptor engines failing to fire as intended. SpaceX engineers in Starbase, Texas, responded by replacing two of the powerplants on the Super Heavy booster. CEO Elon Musk initially set a new launch date of July 23, though a subsequent social-media post pointed to July 24 — a discrepancy flagged by Reuters. The flight is expected to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites on a suborbital trajectory and will attempt an in-space reignition of a single Raptor engine, a key milestone for future deep-space missions.

While the rocket program grapples with technical setbacks, SpaceX is quietly building a second revenue engine around artificial intelligence. The Foxconn order covers the production of 13,000 Nvidia GB300 server racks, deepening the company’s pivot from aerospace pure-play to integrated infrastructure provider following its merger with xAI in early 2026. Separate negotiations with the US Department of Defense over a multi-billion-dollar contract for computing capacity and secure data centers on military bases are also underway. SpaceX already generates meaningful monthly income from partnerships with Google and Anthropic, and new large-scale data centers in Tennessee and Mississippi are designed to harness its satellite network for autonomous trading and defense applications.

The stock’s trajectory remains highly sensitive to these cross-currents. After touching a 52-week low of €107.34 on Friday — the day following the Starship abort — the share price has begun to stabilise, but the rebound is tentative. Analysts are deeply split on the company’s fair value. Raymond James launched coverage with a Street-high target of $800 and a Strong Buy rating, while Needham and Evercore ISI see $225 and $230 respectively. Canaccord Genuity’s $246 target puts the consensus at roughly $236. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas pegs a base case of $300, a bull case of $600, and a bear case as low as $75, driven by a projected revenue explosion from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion by 2030. On the bearish side, Future Fund’s Gary Black warns that SpaceX trades at about 40 times sales — a multiple he calls historically unprecedented for a company of its size, given that Nvidia itself commands only a 10-to-25 times multiple. Black has said he would only buy the stock below $100.

Adding to the pressure is an impending wave of insider selling. Reports indicate that up to 911.5 million shares, worth roughly $115 billion at current prices, will become tradable once the IPO lockup expires after the company’s first quarterly results as a public entity. A further tranche of 455.8 million shares will unlock if the stock surpasses $175.50 — a level it currently trades far below. Musk’s own holdings remain tied up until June 2027. The first quarterly report, due in August, will coincide with the lockup expiry, creating a dual catalyst that could either confirm the stock’s floor or deepen its slide.

Geopolitical risks add another layer of complexity. Iran has formally designated Starlink infrastructure and a Middle Eastern ground station as military targets, while SpaceX’s Starshield unit holds billion-dollar defence contracts, including work on the Pentagon’s Golden Dome program. Operationally, the company is a study in contrasts: Starlink delivered $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, but the AI segment posted a $6.4 billion loss. In the first quarter of 2026, total revenue reached $4.6 billion against a net loss exceeding $4 billion. The Falcon 9 fleet, meanwhile, completed 165 successful launches last year.

The July 23 (or 24) Starship flight will serve as an early litmus test for investor sentiment. A clean launch with a successful in-space engine reignition could inject fresh momentum into a stock that has lost nearly half its value in two months. Another failure would almost certainly intensify the sell-off, making an already volatile situation even more treacherous for holders.