SpaceX’s First Analyst Call Lands With a Thud as a Pivotal August Nears

HSBC gives SpaceX a Hold rating and $115 price target as shares fall 48% from highs, citing fair value and unproven bets like Starship and orbital data centers.

The first major bank to publish formal coverage on SpaceX since its listing has delivered a verdict that does little to soothe frayed nerves. HSBC initiated the rocket and satellite company with a Hold rating and a $115 price target, arriving just as the stock is mired in its deepest pullback since going public.

Shares closed Friday at €101.18, a level that leaves them 47.97% below the June 16 all-time high. The past 30 days alone have wiped out 25.71% of the stock’s value. On a weekly basis, the decline stands at 6.61%, and the price is now just 3.73% above the 52-week low of €97.54 set on July 23.

A Fair-Value Call With a Musk Premium

HSBC’s valuation approach is anything but conventional. Rather than applying a typical conglomerate discount, the bank used a sum-of-the-parts methodology and added a double innovation premium. The rationale: CEO Elon Musk’s track record of turning disruptive technologies into profitable businesses deserves recognition. As a benchmark, HSBC looked at Tesla’s stock performance during its first decade as a public company.

Even with that generous adjustment, the analysts concluded that the market has already priced in the good news — from Starlink’s expansion and rising launch activity to the company’s artificial intelligence ambitions. The stock, they argue, is fairly valued at current levels.

In the most bullish scenario — what HSBC calls the “Blue Sky” case — the fair value reaches $293 per share. That projection, however, hinges on Starship becoming commercially viable by 2027 and launch capacity continuing to grow. The bank flagged several unproven bets that inject risk: orbital data centers, AI infrastructure in space, and semiconductor manufacturing through the Terafab project. On these fronts, HSBC sees significantly tougher competition than the current valuation implies.

Governance also featured in the analysis. Musk retains effective control through his voting rights, and HSBC advised investors to monitor upcoming lock-up expirations that could dramatically increase the free float after future earnings reports.

Starship’s Mixed Bag

The timing of HSBC’s report was awkward: it landed on the same day as the 13th Starship test flight, an event investors had hoped might steady sentiment. The third launch attempt on July 24 succeeded in deploying operational satellites for the first time — 20 Starlink satellites reached suborbital space and established contact with ground stations.

The booster landing told a different story. According to SpaceX, only a fraction of the engines reignited for the landing burn before the stage impacted hard in the Gulf of Mexico. Space.com reported that just 5 of the 13 planned engines fired during the maneuver.

The Starship upper stage, by contrast, showed no visible issues. It completed a full engine burn, demonstrated an in-flight engine restart, and released 20 Starlink test satellites during the coast phase — a meaningful step toward future operational missions.

Alphabet’s $94 Billion Paper Bet

A separate disclosure added another layer of context. Alphabet, for the first time since SpaceX’s IPO, revealed the value of its stake: roughly $94 billion as of June 30. The position dates back to January 2015, when Google and Fidelity jointly invested $1 billion in SpaceX, securing nearly 10% of the company.

That paper gain remains exactly that — paper. All shares are subject to selling restrictions, including $14.1 billion locked up until the third quarter of 2027. The remainder falls under standard post-IPO constraints that will begin to phase out only after SpaceX’s first quarterly report.

Because the valuation is dated June 30, it does not reflect the subsequent decline in the stock price. Alphabet’s stake is almost certainly worth less today than what appears on its balance sheet.

Technical Signals Flash Caution

The combination of a cautious analyst call, a mixed rocket test, and a massive disclosed position that cannot yet be sold has left the stock technically oversold. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 33.9, a level that typically signals weak momentum. The annualized 30-day volatility of 67.12% underscores just how turbulent trading has become since the listing.

Short interest is already elevated. With the stock hovering near its 52-week low, the next two weeks will test how the market weighs SpaceX’s dominant launch and satellite internet business against its speculative future bets.

The 48-Hour Window That Could Reshape the Stock

All eyes are now on two closely spaced events. SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on August 4. Two days later, on August 6, lock-up restrictions expire for early investors, executives, and other insiders.

The numbers are staggering: roughly 911.5 million shares worth about $116 billion become eligible for trading. HSBC warned that this supply dynamic could further weigh on sentiment. The two events fall within 48 hours of each other, creating a tight window in which earnings results and a massive expansion of the free float will overlap.

For a stock already under pressure, that convergence represents both the biggest test and the clearest catalyst of its brief public life.