SpaceX Pre-IPO Contracts Hit $688 as $75 Billion Listing Fuels Debate on Fair Value

SpaceX IPO June 12: $135/share vs $688 pre-IPO. Analysts value at $780B-$1.3T vs $1.75T target. AI revenue from Google/Anthropic hits $26B annually.

The countdown to SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut on June 12 has taken a peculiar turn. While the official IPO price stands at $135 a share — giving the company a target valuation between $1.75 trillion and $1.77 trillion — pre-IPO contracts traded on June 8 were changing hands as high as $688. That marks a 400% premium over the issue price, a level that even bullish analysts struggle to justify.

Fair value gap widens among experts

Morningstar values the entire enterprise at $780 billion, less than half the IPO target. Nicolas Owens, the firm’s lead analyst, puts the core rocket-launch and Starlink business at roughly $40 per share, adding $16.50 for the AI component. Critically, the valuation guru Aswath Damodaran arrives at $1.3 trillion based on the latest prospectus — still 25% below the company’s own pitch. He expects a rally right after listing but warns of corrections later, a pattern he says has repeated across tech IPOs.

The AI revenue engine that dwarfs everything else

Investors willing to overlook the paper losses point to SpaceX’s new cloud and artificial-intelligence contracts, which together dwarf the 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion. A Google cloud deal signed in the SEC filings commits the search giant to $920 million a month from October 2026 through June 2029. A separate agreement with Anthropic adds $1.25 billion monthly. Combined, the projected annual revenue from AI services alone runs to roughly $26 billion. For context, the entire company booked $18.67 billion in sales last year — a 33% increase over the prior year — but still posted a net loss of $4.94 billion.

The AI push comes from the fusion with xAI, into which SpaceX is now pouring 76% of its capital spending. The unit is building orbital data centers and has already secured a long-term compute infrastructure contract with Anthropic that runs until May 2029.

Starlink provides the reliable backbone

Underneath the AI hype, Starlink remains the steady profit driver. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, the satellite network had 10.3 million active subscribers. On the launch side, SpaceX continues to slash costs through reusability: a Falcon 9 booster made its 35th flight on Monday. The Space Operations segment also benefits from a growing commercial and government launch manifest.

Passive funds pile pressure on the stock

The IPO itself aims to raise $75 billion, with institutional demand reportedly reaching $150 billion — double the supply. Retail investors get an unusually large 30% allocation, and Fidelity has cut the minimum investment to $2,000 to accommodate the flood of applications.

Index inclusion will add further upward pressure. MSCI has decided to fast-track SpaceX into its global standard indexes, forcing passive funds to buy right after trading starts. S&P Global, however, rejected an early S&P 500 listing because the company lacks the required “sustained profitability.” Nasdaq offers a faster route: its revised “Fast Entry” rules allow new listings to join the index just 15 trading days after the IPO. That would force passive funds to invest between $22 billion and $60 billion in SpaceX shares, regardless of price.

Musk’s iron grip and the lock-up trade-off

Elon Musk retains complete control through super-voting shares, holding about 85.1% of voting power. Meanwhile, 60% of the company’s stock is subject to a one-year lock-up, with the remainder released in stages over 180 days. Employees and certain insiders enjoy shorter lock-up periods than typical for an IPO of this size — a detail that may add near-term selling pressure once the early restrictions expire.

Trading begins under the ticker SPCX. Given the $688 pre-IPO prints, the $150 billion order book, and the prospect of passive buying within weeks, most market participants expect a volatile opening but a decisive pop on day one.