SpaceX IPO, NAV Growth and a Shareholder Vote: Scottish Mortgage at a Crossroads

Scottish Mortgage Trust faces a pivotal week as SpaceX's $1.75T IPO looms, NAV climbs 12% since March, and shareholders weigh a risky £250M private investment boost at the July AGM.

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust enters a defining week with two powerful forces converging. On Friday, June 12, SpaceX is expected to list at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation — a deal that could instantly transform the trust's largest illiquid holding into a tradeable asset. Just days earlier, on June 9, the fund published a fresh net asset value of 1,475.91 pence per share (cum-fair, ungeprüft as of June 8), marking a roughly 12% climb from the 1,315.8 pence reported at the end of March.

The NAV rally reinforces the strong momentum behind Scottish Mortgage's portfolio. For the financial year through March 2026, the trust delivered a NAV total return of 27.4% (with liabilities at fair value), handily beating the FTSE All-World Index's 18.0% gain in sterling terms. Over a decade, the NAV has surged 435% — a record that underpins management’s conviction in unlisted growth stocks.

Yet that very conviction is being tested. More than 40% of the portfolio sits in private companies, and the environment for those assets is turning hostile. Bain & Company recently warned that the buyout market is suffering multiple shocks: software-sector woes, stress in private credit, and rising oil prices from geopolitical tensions. Deal volumes for tech transactions collapsed 70% from the fourth quarter of 2025 to early 2026, as buyers and sellers struggle to agree on valuations.

The tension will come to a head at the annual general meeting on July 2 in Edinburgh. The board is asking shareholders to approve a relaxation of the limit on private investments, allowing an additional £250 million to be deployed into unlisted companies. That would push the trust above its current cap, and the permission would need annual renewal. Critics see a risky bet at exactly the wrong moment; supporters point to SpaceX as proof that the strategy works.

SpaceX is now Scottish Mortgage's top holding at 21% of the portfolio, after a recent upward revaluation. A successful IPO on Friday would convert that enormous illiquid exposure into liquid equity overnight, dramatically reducing one of the trust's biggest risk factors. Other heavyweights in the fund — Anthropic and OpenAI — are also preparing to go public, but SpaceX is the immediate catalyst.

The market’s nerves are already showing. The stock closed at €16.84 on the German exchange this week (€16.82 on Tuesday), down 6.32% over seven days and roughly 14% below its 52-week high of €19.50 reached on May 25. The 50-day moving average of €16.68 is now almost exactly in line with the current price, and the relative strength index stands at 44.4 — neutral territory.

A shift in capital allocation policy has added to the uncertainty. The trust tightened the rules for share buybacks: it will now only repurchase stock when the market price falls below NAV. That removes a long-standing price floor. In the prior financial year, Scottish Mortgage spent £1.31 billion buying its own shares. The new approach has already produced erratic trading — first issuing shares at a premium, then buying them back at a discount days later.

Despite the short-term jitters, the long-term track record remains formidable. Year-to-date the stock is still up 21.20%, and the NAV continues to climb. The question for investors is whether the headwinds facing private markets will outweigh the tailwind from a SpaceX listing. Friday's debut will offer the first concrete answer; the July 2 vote will provide the second.