SpaceX Faces a Pivotal Week as Lockup Expiry, Earnings Report, and Starship Test Collide

SpaceX shares rally 3.24% to €108.36 after a 52-week low, but a record 32% short interest and looming lockup expiry on August 4 threaten further downside.

SpaceX shares clawed back some ground on Tuesday, closing at €108.36 after a 3.24% rally, but the relief may prove fleeting. The stock had touched a 52-week low of €104.88 just a day earlier, and the broader picture remains grim: the equity is still down roughly 45% from its record high of €194.46, reached in mid-June shortly after the company's public listing.

The bounce came on the back of a rare double-header in orbit. Two Falcon 9 rockets launched within 24 hours, a feat that underscored SpaceX's operational tempo. From Cape Canaveral, a booster flew its 32nd and final mission, carrying Northrop Grumman's Mission Robotic Vehicle and three Mission Extension Pods into geostationary transfer orbit. The spacecraft is designed to service aging communications satellites, extending their operational lives — a move that marks SpaceX's entry into the commercial satellite-servicing market. Simultaneously, a second Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base, deploying 24 Starlink satellites. That launch came just a day after a rare engine abort had scrubbed an earlier attempt, demonstrating the company's ability to resolve technical issues quickly. Starlink, now with over 10,800 active satellites and more than 10 million subscribers globally, remains SpaceX's primary revenue engine.

The Lockup Clock Is Ticking

The real pressure, however, is building around August 4. That date marks two critical events converging into one: SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company, and the initial lockup period following the June 12 IPO will expire. Under the company's staggered release structure, insiders will be permitted to sell up to 20% of their holdings after the earnings are published. That could unleash as many as 911.5 million shares onto the market — a potential supply shock that has already sent short sellers scrambling.

The short interest in SpaceX stock has surged to a record 32% of the free float, a level that reflects deep skepticism about the stock's valuation and the looming overhang. Elon Musk has publicly warned that large short positions in his company carry significant long-term risk, though the warning has done little to deter bearish bets so far. The elevated short interest also sets up the possibility of a short squeeze if positive catalysts emerge, but for now, the bears appear firmly in control.

Technical Signals Point to Oversold Territory

The relative strength index stands at 36.1, edging toward the oversold threshold that some traders view as a buy signal. The annualized 30-day volatility has clocked in at nearly 91%, a figure that captures the extreme nervousness surrounding the stock. Tuesday's rebound, while welcome for bulls, has not yet broken the broader downtrend. The stock remains more than 44% below its 52-week high and well below its IPO price of roughly $135 (approximately €124).

Starship Test Looms as a Sentiment Catalyst

Before the earnings and lockup date, SpaceX must clear a major technical hurdle. The 13th integrated test flight of the Starship system is now scheduled for Thursday, July 23, after a first attempt on July 16 was aborted due to ignition issues with the Raptor engines. The launch window opens at 17:45 Texas time from the Starbase facility, with a 90-minute window for liftoff.

The mission's primary objective is a controlled, soft water landing of the Starship upper stage in the ocean. Success would demonstrate progress toward full reusability of the Super Heavy booster and the Starship vehicle — a key requirement for NASA's Artemis III mission, which remains on track for a demonstration flight in 2027, according to a confirmation issued July 20. Analysts expect the test outcome to shape sentiment in the days leading up to the earnings report, with a successful flight potentially providing the kind of positive momentum that could help the stock regain ground toward its IPO price.

For now, SpaceX finds itself at a crossroads where operational excellence in orbit must contend with the cold mathematics of supply and demand in the stock market. The next two weeks will determine whether the company's technical achievements can outweigh the weight of a massive lockup expiration.