SpaceX Faces a Pivotal Two-Week Stretch as Earnings and Lock-Up Expiry Converge

SpaceX shares edge up to €102.28 after hitting a 52-week low, with first earnings and lock-up expiry looming. Starship test success fails to stem 29% monthly loss.

SpaceX shares clawed back some ground on Tuesday, closing at €102.28 — a 2.28% gain that offered a brief respite after the stock had tumbled to a fresh 52-week low of €94.15 just a day earlier. The European-traded shares, which track the Nasdaq-listed dollar-denominated stock via platforms like Tradegate and Xetra, remain deeply in the red over the past month, down nearly 29% in 30 days.

The 14-day relative strength index now sits at 35.6, edging into oversold territory but still shy of the levels that typically signal a definitive reversal. With annualized volatility hovering around 65%, the stock remains acutely sensitive to any fresh catalyst — whether technical breakthroughs in space or developments tied to Elon Musk's broader business empire.

Starship Test Delivers, But Markets Stay Focused on the Books

SpaceX notched a significant operational milestone on July 24 when its Starship spacecraft completed its 13th test flight, successfully deploying 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. CEO Elon Musk later revealed that the mission included a previously undisclosed stress test: the vehicle was subjected to an intentionally aggressive acceleration profile to test the ceramic heat shield tiles under maximum mechanical load. Musk confirmed the tiles held up, marking a technical win for the Starship program.

Yet the achievement did little to arrest the stock's slide. The shares now trade 47.40% below their 52-week high of €194.46, set shortly after June's initial public offering. The market's attention has shifted squarely to the company's financials.

First Earnings Report as a Public Company

On August 4, after U.S. market close, SpaceX will release its inaugural quarterly report as a publicly traded entity. Management has scheduled a webcast for 3:30 p.m. Chicago time. For investors, this is the first detailed look under the hood since the multibillion-dollar IPO.

Two questions dominate: how profitable is the Starlink satellite business, and how much is Starship's development program eating into that cash flow? The answers will determine whether the company's current market valuation of roughly €1.333 trillion is justified. Bank of America Securities reiterated its buy rating in July with a $235 price target, while Bernstein SocGen holds at $239 — both well above current levels.

The Lock-Up Overhang

Just two days after earnings, on August 6, the post-IPO lock-up period expires. That could release as many as 911.5 million shares onto the market as early investors and employees become free to sell. The prospect of a flood of insider selling has weighed on sentiment, even as analysts maintain their long-term bullish outlooks.

Cathie Wood's ARK Investment has been buying into the weakness. On July 28, the fund manager purchased 124,543 shares worth approximately $14.1 million, spreading the position across several ARK funds including the flagship ARK Innovation ETF and the specialized ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF.

Three Catalysts, One Outcome

The next two weeks will test whether SpaceX can hold its recent recovery — currently 8.64% above Monday's record low — or whether the combination of earnings uncertainty and a looming share overhang will drive it lower. A Falcon 9 launch scheduled for Thursday, carrying the NROL-95 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office and U.S. Space Force from Cape Canaveral, serves as a reminder that the operational engine keeps running regardless of the stock's gyrations.

How the market weighs the earnings report, the lock-up expiry, and the steady drumbeat of launch successes will likely set the tone for the weeks ahead.