SpaceX Faces a Defining August as Insider Lock-Up, First Earnings, and Starship Setbacks Converge

SpaceX shares fell 2.6% to €101.18 after a mixed Starship test, with a 25.71% monthly drop and a looming August 6 lock-up expiration threatening further supply pressure.

SpaceX investors are bracing for a pivotal stretch as the company barrels toward a trio of events that could reshape the stock’s trajectory. The shares closed Friday at €101.18, shedding 2.6% on the day and extending a monthly decline of 25.71%. That leaves the equity just 3.73% above its 52-week low of €97.54, a level touched on Thursday.

The immediate catalyst for the latest leg lower was Friday’s 13th test flight of the Starship system, which delivered a mixed bag of results. From the Starbase facility in Texas, the mission achieved a notable first: the deployment of 20 upgraded V3-generation Starlink satellites into orbit, a version equipped with enhanced laser-communication capabilities. The upper stage completed a controlled suborbital trajectory and splashed down gently in the Indian Ocean.

But the Super Heavy booster told a different story. During its approach over the Gulf of Mexico, only 10 of the 13 Raptor engines relit for the braking burn, and by the time of impact just five were running. What was meant to be a controlled landing turned into what mission observers described as a “hard” touchdown. Satellite analyst Tim Farrar downplayed the significance of the overall progress, noting that SpaceX remains “far from rapid reusability of the entire spacecraft” and warning that unresolved ignition issues could cause “severe damage to the launch pad” if repeated during a landing attempt.

The market shrugged off the satellite milestone and focused on the booster mishap. The stock has fallen in four of the last five weeks and now sits 43% below its closing high from June 16. The 14-day relative strength index has dropped to 33.9, deep into oversold territory, while annualized 30-day volatility hovers near 67% — a recipe for continued turbulence.

All eyes are now on August 4, when SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a publicly traded company. The numbers will land just two days before a massive lock-up expiration on August 6, when as many as 911.5 million shares — worth up to $116 billion at current prices — become eligible for sale by early investors and insiders. Many of those holders are sitting on enormous paper gains from SpaceX’s days as a private company, raising fears of a flood of supply that could compound the stock’s recent weakness.

The IPO last month valued SpaceX at roughly $86 billion, making it one of the largest initial public offerings on record. But the shares have trended lower ever since, with Morgan Stanley noting that the stock briefly fell to around $111 — roughly 18% below the offer price. Analysts have attributed the post-IPO slide to Elon Musk’s strategy of steering the company beyond rockets and satellites toward artificial-intelligence infrastructure, a pivot that has left some investors questioning the near-term earnings trajectory.

Despite the bearish sentiment, SpaceX’s operational cadence remains intact. A Falcon 9 launch from California’s Space Launch Complex 4E is scheduled for Saturday, carrying another batch of Starlink satellites. And Musk has already set an ambitious target for the next Starship flight: a “tower catch” of the upper stage, using the mechanical “chopstick” arms at the launch tower — a maneuver successfully executed only once before, with the Super Heavy booster in late 2024.

For now, though, the market’s focus is squarely on the calendar. The combination of a first-ever earnings report and the unlocking of insider shares within the same week has analysts warning that volatility could spike further. The stock has already lost a quarter of its value in a single month, and with the 52-week low just a few percentage points away, the margin for error is razor-thin.