SpaceX Faces a Defining August as HSBC’s Cautious Debut Collides With a Record Lock-Up Wave

SpaceX braces for earnings and a massive lock-up expiry; HSBC issues $115 target below IPO, while Starship test flight yields mixed results.

SpaceX investors are bracing for a high-stakes two-week stretch that could determine whether the stock stabilizes or continues its slide toward fresh lows. The company’s first earnings report as a publicly traded entity arrives on August 4, followed just 48 hours later by the expiration of a lock-up period that will unleash roughly 911.5 million shares onto the market — a flood worth approximately $116 billion that dwarfs the current free float by a factor of 1.41.

The shares, which listed on the Nasdaq in mid-June at $135, have already shed significant ground. In German trading, the stock closed Friday at €101.18, representing a 24.68% decline over the past 30 days. The relative strength index now sits at 33.9, flirting with oversold territory and underscoring the severity of the recent sell-off.

HSBC Breaks Cover With a Below-IPO Price Target

Adding to the pressure, HSBC initiated coverage on Friday with a Hold rating and a $115 price target — a level that sits well below the $135 IPO price. The British bank’s analysts built their valuation using a sum-of-the-parts model that grants Elon Musk a double innovation premium, yet even with that generous assumption, they couldn’t push the target beyond $115. In their most optimistic scenario, which assumes Starship begins commercial operations by 2027, HSBC sees a potential upside to $293.

The market reacted swiftly: the stock briefly lost as much as 6% in New York before closing almost exactly at the new target, at $115.07.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas takes a diametrically opposite view. He argues that the market is currently assigning zero or even negative value to SpaceX’s artificial intelligence business — and that this very disconnect represents the buying opportunity. Jonas maintains a $300 price target, with more than half of that valuation tied to the AI segment. He has also warned that the stock could dip to around $100 as the lock-up approaches, a scenario he considers already priced into his recommendation.

The analyst consensus remains broadly bullish: roughly 80% of covering firms rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target near $237. But the range is unusually wide for a newly listed company, stretching from $62 to $800 — a sign of just how divided opinion is on SpaceX’s trajectory.

Starship’s 13th Flight Delivers a Mixed Technical Report Card

Friday also brought the 13th test flight of the Starship system from the company’s Starbase facility in Texas. The upper stage successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, the improved heat shield survived reentry, and the vehicle executed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster, however, stumbled during landing: five of its planned engines failed to reignite, resulting in a hard touchdown.

The test flight carries particular weight for investors because the entire Starship program is central to both NASA’s Artemis III lunar landing ambitions and the bull-case scenarios underpinning analyst optimism. HSBC’s most aggressive valuation, for instance, hinges entirely on Starship achieving commercial operations within the next few years.

The Numbers Behind the Skepticism

HSBC’s caution is rooted in the company’s financial profile. In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX generated $4.69 billion in revenue but posted an operating loss of $1.94 billion. Starlink remains the stable core, contributing $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit, while the AI division — despite $818 million in revenue — recorded an operating loss of $2.47 billion.

The bank projects that total revenue could double to $38.2 billion this year, but it expects GAAP losses to persist through 2027 and positive free cash flow to remain elusive until at least 2030. Cumulative capital requirements over that period are estimated at roughly $106 billion.

HSBC also flagged operational warning signs: SpaceX has begun turning away customers for Falcon 9 launches after 2028 and is no longer accepting new reservations for its rideshare program — moves that the analysts interpret as a signal of capacity constraints and shifting priorities.

Lock-Up Expiry and Record Short Interest Create a Volatile Cocktail

The August 6 lock-up expiration will release shares worth more than the entire current free float, which stands at just about 5% of outstanding stock. That thin float has already amplified the stock’s volatility since listing, and the influx of newly tradable shares is expected to generate significant selling pressure.

Short sellers have been piling in. Bets against the stock recently rose to roughly 32% of the free float, up from 29% the prior week, representing a notional value of about $25 billion. Elon Musk has publicly warned short sellers that their positions have limited survival prospects, though the data suggests they remain undeterred.

The stock did manage a brief reprieve over the weekend, gaining roughly 3% after Macquarie reaffirmed its Outperform rating. But the combination of the lock-up expiration, record short interest, and the first quarterly earnings report as a public company creates a uniquely volatile setup.

What Comes Next

For investors, the next two weeks will serve as a stress test. The August 4 earnings report is expected to show revenue of $6.9 billion — a 47% sequential increase — with a loss of $0.28 per share. Two days later, the lock-up gates open. Whether the stock can hold above its current levels or resumes its downward trajectory will likely depend on how these two events interact.

As one analyst put it, the market is about to find out whether the selling pressure from the lock-up has already been discounted or whether the flood of new shares will overwhelm demand. For a stock that has already lost nearly a quarter of its value in a month, the answer cannot come soon enough.