SpaceX Analysts Clash Over Valuation as Shares Test New Lows Ahead of Earnings

SpaceX stock hits 52-week low as analysts clash over valuation, with price targets ranging from $62 to $800 amid AI and Starship uncertainty.

The battle over SpaceX’s fair value is intensifying. With the stock down more than 30% over the past month and a new 52-week low of €94.15 hit earlier this week, the gap between Wall Street’s bulls and bears has rarely been wider. At the center of the debate: whether the market is correctly pricing in Elon Musk’s sprawling portfolio of space, satellite, and artificial intelligence assets.

A Divided Analyst Community

Bernstein SocGen analyst Douglas Harned remains the most prominent bull, reaffirming his “Outperform” rating and a price target of $239 on July 28. That implies roughly 110% upside from current levels. Harned sees a “disconnect” between the company’s fundamentals and the market’s pessimism, pointing to recent Starship progress as justification for his conviction.

Just days earlier, HSBC initiated coverage with a far more cautious stance. The bank assigned a “Hold” rating and a price target of $115 — a level that sits below SpaceX’s IPO price of $135, even after factoring in a so-called “innovation premium” for Musk’s ability to commercialize disruptive technologies.

The broader consensus, however, leans positive. Among 34 analysts surveyed by S&P Global, the average price target stands at $236.71 with a consensus “Buy” rating. But the range is staggering: from a low of $62 to a high of $800, reflecting just how uncertain the market is about the company’s trajectory.

The AI Valuation Gap

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has framed the debate in stark terms. In his view, the stock is approaching a critical threshold where the market is effectively assigning zero value to SpaceX’s AI portfolio, including the Grok language model and the Cursor coding assistant. Harned pushes back forcefully, arguing that the current price ignores the long-term potential of these assets.

The disagreement goes to the heart of what SpaceX is worth as a multi-business enterprise. While its Starlink satellite network generates revenue today, the AI and Starship programs remain largely speculative — and the market is struggling to price them in.

Starship Test Delivers Mixed Signals

The valuation debate coincides with the thirteenth test flight of the Starship-Super Heavy system on July 24. The Super Heavy booster experienced a hard landing in the Gulf of Mexico after only a portion of its 13 landing engines ignited. Yet the mission achieved several key milestones for the third-generation hardware.

SpaceX successfully deployed a batch of 20 production-grade Starlink V3 satellites, demonstrated an in-space Raptor engine relight, and completed the softest splashdown to date in the Indian Ocean. For the first time in the program’s history, the upper stage remained intact and buoyant after reentry, providing engineers with valuable heat shield data.

Harned called the flight a “major success,” emphasizing the deployment of operational satellites over the booster’s loss.

Cathie Wood Buys, Short Sellers Profit

Institutional investors are voting with their wallets — in opposite directions. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood purchased SpaceX-related shares worth $14.1 million on Monday, signaling confidence in the long-term story. Ron Baron of Baron Capital went further, calling SpaceX potentially the most valuable company in the world.

Meanwhile, short sellers have already pocketed $15.5 billion from the stock’s decline. Prediction markets give the shares just a 4% probability of recovering above €150 by month-end.

The stock closed Tuesday at €102.28, up 2.28%, after touching its 52-week low of €94.15 the previous day. The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 33.3, just above oversold territory, while the 30-day annualized volatility remains elevated at roughly 65%.

Two Catalysts Loom in Early August

All eyes are now on August 4, when SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a publicly traded company. Investors will get their first standardized look at the financials since the June IPO.

Two days later, on August 6, a major lock-up period expires, freeing approximately 911.5 million shares held by early insiders and employees. Analysts expect a fresh wave of volatility as those shares become tradable.

The €100 level is now viewed as a psychological support line. With short interest elevated and prediction markets betting against a near-term recovery, the earnings report and lock-up expiry could determine which side of the valuation debate ultimately prevails.