SoftBank Under Strain as Stock Split, DigitalBridge Deal, and OpenAI Financing Reframe the Bet on AI

SoftBank JP3436100006

SoftBank’s stock is coming under sustained pressure, sliding 7.6% on the day and extending a downtrend that has run since October. In the ensuing months, the company’s market value has fallen by roughly 40%. A trio of aggressive moves appears to be behind the weakness: a stock split, a multibillion-dollar acquisition, and a decisive tilt of the portfolio toward highly capital-intensive AI infrastructure.

While the broader Nikkei 225 declined 1.6% today, SoftBank’s shares fared far worse. Investors are broadly marking down profits in the AI space and voicing concerns about Masayoshi Son’s aggressive redeployment of capital. The market is pricing in higher risk from the strategy shift: moving away from established chipmakers toward AI infrastructure projects that require substantial upfront investment. This transition sits against an already volatile tech and AI environment.

4-for-1 stock split delivers no near-term relief

Effective today, SoftBank completed a 4-for-1 stock split. The number of outstanding shares has quadrupled, while the price per share is mathematically reduced to one-quarter. Such moves are typically designed to boost liquidity and make the stock appear more affordable to retail investors. But current selling pressure persists, and the company’s market valuation remains largely unchanged, still susceptible to fluctuations in the AI sector and the latest strategic decisions.

Billion-dollar DigitalBridge acquisition

Concurrently with the share decline, SoftBank disclosed a binding agreement to acquire DigitalBridge Group. The deal totals about $4 billion, with an offer price of $16 per share—about a 15% premium to DigitalBridge’s most recent stock price. Key details include:

• Target: DigitalBridge Group (infrastructure/data centers)
• Price: $16.00 per share
• Deal size: around $4 billion, including assumed debt
• Expected close: in the second half of 2026

Strategically, DigitalBridge would help SoftBank consolidate physical AI infrastructure—data centers and edge connectivity—under its umbrella. DigitalBridge manages more than $100 billion of infrastructure assets, which SoftBank plans to integrate into its ecosystem.

A radical portfolio overhaul and OpenAI funding

The firm’s dramatic share-price swings are tightly tied to a sweeping reshaping of its investment holdings. SoftBank has exited its entire Nvidia position, realizing approximately $5.83 billion, and redirected those funds toward higher-risk AI initiatives.

The centerpiece of the new push is a $41 billion financing package for OpenAI. Of this total, $30 billion comes from the SoftBank Vision Fund, with an additional $11 billion supplied by co-investing partners. The capital is aimed primarily at supporting the Stargate project—a joint venture between OpenAI and Oracle with an envisaged total scale of $500 billion to build expansive supercomputer clusters.

Analysts caution that this pivot carries substantial risk. The plan is long-term and capital-intensive, with profits not expected to materialize soon:

• OpenAI is projected to become profitable no earlier than 2029 or 2030.
• For 2028, operating losses could reach as high as $74 billion due to the massive infrastructure build-out.

In short, SoftBank is exchanging a highly liquid Nvidia stake for a long-duration, high-risk AI infrastructure exposure.

The current snapshot

• Market move: Shares down 7.6% today
• Capital action: 4-for-1 stock split executed
• M&A activity: Acquisition of DigitalBridge for about $4 billion (at $16 per share)
• Portfolio shift: Complete exit from Nvidia (approximately $5.83 billion proceeds) to fund AI infrastructure
• Major investment: $41 billion in OpenAI commitments ($30 billion from SoftBank, $11 billion from co-investors)
• OpenAI outlook: Expected losses up to $74 billion in 2028, with profitability not expected until 2029–2030

The market’s reception to this suite of moves has been cautious. The combination of a stock split, a sizable acquisition, and a landmark OpenAI funding package signals SoftBank’s intent to anchor its future in long-term generative AI infrastructure—offering high upside but also notable near-term risk for shareholders.

@ boerse-global.de | JP3436100006 SOFTBANK