SoftBank Shares Face Dual Headwinds from Arm and OpenAI

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The investment conglomerate SoftBank is navigating significant challenges from two of its major holdings this week, with disappointing signals from chip designer Arm and intensifying competitive concerns surrounding OpenAI applying downward pressure on its stock.

Market sentiment has been notably impacted by developments in the artificial intelligence sector, where SoftBank holds a substantial stake. According to a SoftBank disclosure from late December 2025, the group finalized a total investment of $41 billion in OpenAI, securing approximately an 11% ownership in the ChatGPT creator.

This $41 billion commitment comprises $30 billion from SoftBank, deployed through its Vision Fund 2, and an additional $11 billion from co-investors. The SoftBank portion was executed in two stages: an initial closing of $7.5 billion in April 2025, followed by a second closing of $22.5 billion in December 2025.

Investor anxiety was compounded by robust quarterly results from Alphabet. The tech giant's higher-than-anticipated investment budget for 2026 fueled worries that Google's Gemini AI offerings could increase competitive pressures on OpenAI, directly affecting the valuation of SoftBank's significant investment.

Arm's Revenue Shortfall and Broader Chip Sector Concerns

Simultaneously, SoftBank's core holding in Arm Holdings presented its own difficulties. Arm's after-hours performance weakened significantly after it reported license revenue for the December quarter that fell short of Wall Street forecasts. This is particularly consequential for SoftBank, which retains an 87.1% stake in the chip architecture firm following its 2023 market return. Arm generates income through licensing its chip technology designs and collecting ongoing royalties.

Further uncertainty emerged from the wider semiconductor industry. Qualcomm issued a subdued outlook for 2026, suggesting that rising global memory prices—driven by the AI boom—could dampen smartphone demand. This indirectly impacts Arm, whose designs are integral to processors in a vast number of mobile devices.

Upcoming Earnings and Strategic Moves in Focus

All eyes are now on SoftBank's third-quarter earnings release scheduled for February 12. Bloomberg reports that this will provide the first official opportunity for management to address market speculation, including a Wall Street Journal report from late January indicating SoftBank is in discussions regarding a potential additional investment of up to $30 billion in OpenAI.

Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted a potential credit implication, noting that an expansion of this magnitude could strain SoftBank's creditworthiness. The additional capital outlay might push the loan-to-value ratio toward a 35% threshold, which is considered a potential trigger for a ratings downgrade.

Despite these headline challenges, SoftBank continues to pursue other strategic investments in the semiconductor space. According to Nikkei, SoftBank and Sony are leading a $1 billion private funding round for Japanese chipmaker Rapidus, signaling the group's ongoing commitment to the chip sector.

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