SoftBank’s Financial Strategy Faces Scrutiny Amid OpenAI Investment Talks

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All eyes are on SoftBank Group this week as the Japanese conglomerate prepares to release its third-quarter earnings for the fiscal year 2025. The Thursday report is highly anticipated, marking management's first public opportunity to address widespread reports of negotiations for a massive new investment in artificial intelligence leader OpenAI. The scale and financial implications of this potential move are set to dominate investor discussions.

The upcoming earnings presentation follows a strong previous quarter. According to MarketBeat data, SoftBank reported earnings per share of $1.48 for its second quarter, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.14. Quarterly revenue for that period stood at $12.44 billion.

This financial update occurs against a backdrop of significant portfolio restructuring. In a strategic shift, SoftBank divested its entire stake in Nvidia during November, a transaction valued at $5.8 billion according to Forbes. The capital from this sale is understood to have been redirected toward the group's intensified AI focus. Furthermore, the company finalized its acquisition of Ampere Computing in late November. The US-based chip designer, which specializes in ARM-based technology, was purchased for a reported $6.5 billion.

The OpenAI Investment: Existing Stake and Future Potential

SoftBank's deepening commitment to AI is already substantial. The group completed a $41 billion investment in OpenAI last December, securing an approximate 11% ownership stake. A subsequent year-end communication confirmed an additional $22.5 billion investment on December 26, fulfilling a commitment originally made in March 2025.

Attention is now fixed on the next potential step. A late-January Reuters report indicated that SoftBank is in talks to invest an additional $30 billion into OpenAI. This would form part of a broader funding round that could raise up to $100 billion, with Reuters citing OpenAI's valuation at around $830 billion.

Key Financial Data Points:
* Current OpenAI Stake: Approximately 11%
* Completed Investment (December): $41 billion
* Potential Additional Investment Under Discussion: Up to $30 billion
* Q3 FY2025 Earnings Release: Thursday, 4:30 AM JST

Credit Rating Considerations and the "Stargate" Project

Analysts are evaluating the balance sheet impact of such a large-scale investment. Bloomberg Intelligence has suggested that an extra $30 billion commitment could exert pressure on SoftBank's credit rating. Their analysis indicates the move might push the loan-to-value ratio toward a 35% threshold, a level that could trigger a downgrade. To maintain this key metric below 25%, the report notes SoftBank might require asset sales and margin loans totaling at least $15 billion.

Beyond direct investment, SoftBank and OpenAI are also partners in a separate, colossal initiative. Both are investors in the "Stargate" project, a $500 billion endeavor aimed at constructing AI data centers in the United States. Reuters has described this project as crucial to U.S. ambitions to maintain a leadership position in AI against China.

Thursday's earnings call will be pivotal for clarity. Investors await confirmation of the OpenAI discussions, management's perspective on financing the potential deal, and insights from the quarterly figures themselves regarding the company's capacity for another multi-billion dollar strategic move.