Small Businesses Push Prices Higher as US Consumers Pull Back, Fiserv Data Shows

Small business sales rise 1.1% but transaction volumes drop 1.7% as higher prices mask weakening demand. Restaurants hit hardest; Fiserv targets $4.5B Clover revenue by 2026.

The resilience of America's small businesses is being tested by a growing disconnect at the checkout counter. Customers are visiting less frequently but spending more per trip, according to Fiserv's Small Business Index for April, painting a picture of an economy where price increases are masking a slowdown in real demand.

The seasonally adjusted index held steady at 144 points. While year-over-year sales rose 1.1%, that growth was almost entirely driven by a 2.8% jump in average ticket size — the sharpest increase in four years. The number of transactions, meanwhile, fell 1.7%, signaling that consumers are becoming more selective about where and when they shop.

Restaurant sector bears the brunt

The pain is not evenly distributed. The foodservice industry is feeling the pinch most acutely, with sector-wide sales declining 1.6%. Quick-service restaurants were hit hardest, where revenues plunged 4.8% and customer traffic dropped 5.1%.

Gas stations posted a 19% sales surge, but that figure is almost entirely attributable to higher fuel costs rather than increased demand. The services sector fared better, growing nearly 10% as businesses passed on higher operating expenses to customers.

"The apparent resilience of small businesses is deceptive," said Prasanna Dhore, a data expert at Fiserv. "Customers are prioritizing value, while prices remain elevated."

Clover remains the strategic anchor

For Fiserv itself, the macroeconomic picture is a mixed bag. The company's merchant payments business continues to process transactions, but the broader environment is creating headwinds. Analysts remain cautious, with the majority rating the stock a "Hold" and price targets ranging from $60 to $92.

The Clover platform remains the strategic centerpiece. After generating $2.7 billion in revenue in 2024 — a 29% increase — management is targeting $4.5 billion by the end of 2026, implying an annual growth rate of roughly 28.5%. New hardware such as the Clover Compact and Flex Pocket have already launched, alongside industry-specific software for restaurants and service providers. To date, 4 million Clover point-of-sale systems have been sold across 11 active markets.

Earnings pressure looms

First-quarter 2026 results, expected in May, are unlikely to provide much cheer. Analysts forecast total revenue of around $4.8 billion, a slight decline year-over-year. Operating income is expected to fall nearly 18%, while earnings per share could drop by roughly 27%. Higher operating costs and the timing of strategic investments in digital payment infrastructure are weighing on the bottom line.

Institutional confidence remains

Despite the near-term challenges, institutional investors are maintaining their positions. Regulatory filings from May 2026 show that Fifth Third Bancorp has taken a new stake in Fiserv, purchasing approximately 66,400 shares worth about $4.5 million. More than 90% of outstanding shares are already held by institutional investors, reflecting structural confidence in the long-term strategy.

All eyes are now on mid-May, when Fiserv's management will present its medium-term strategy and "One Fiserv" action plan at an Investor Day in New York. Investors will be watching closely for signals on margin expansion through new payment technologies and the growth of recurring revenue streams. Whether the company delivers concrete guidance on profitability in its Financial Solutions segment could determine how analysts adjust their ratings in the weeks ahead.