SK Hynix Surges 11% as Memory Supercycle and $7.5B HBM Revenue Forecast Drive Target to 3.8M Won

Shinhan Securities doubles price target to 3.8M won, Bernstein forecasts $7.5B HBM revenue; memory supercycle and AI demand drive bullish outlook.

SK Hynix shares stormed nearly 11% higher on Thursday to close at 1.94 million won, brushing against the record peak of 1.98 million won set just a week earlier. The rally was fueled by a one-two punch from the analyst community: Shinhan Securities more than doubled its price target to 3.8 million won, while Bernstein reinforced the bullish narrative with fresh export data pointing to a $7.5 billion quarter in High-Bandwidth Memory.

Shinhan’s target, upgraded from 1.9 million won, implies almost 96% upside from the current price. The call rests on a conviction that the memory industry is entering a supercycle that will lift DRAM average selling prices by 273% year-on-year in 2026 and NAND by 292%. Supply constraints for AI-optimized chips are expected to persist until at least 2027, giving manufacturers pricing leverage. Labor disputes that had clouded the Korean semiconductor landscape have also eased, removing a key overhang.

Bernstein’s contribution came from a regression analysis of Korean memory exports, which the firm uses as a leading indicator for HBM shipments. April multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia totaled $3.7 billion — down 12% from March but 62% higher than January. More telling were the shipments from North Chungcheong and Icheon, SK Hynix’s core production hubs: they rose 4% month-on-month and 81% versus January. From these figures, Bernstein estimates second-quarter HBM revenue of roughly $7.5 billion, a 25% sequential increase. That number, however, sits slightly below the firm’s own earlier forecast of $8.2 billion, signaling that while momentum is strong, expectations have been set sky-high.

The export data show no clear sign yet of a ramp in HBM4 volumes — neither at SK Hynix nor at rival Samsung Electronics. That is not an alarm bell, but it makes the coming months critical for a stock whose valuation increasingly hinges on the transition from HBM3E to next-generation chips. Bernstein notes that HBM prices have remained largely insulated from the explosion in conventional DRAM pricing thanks to long-term contracts, with a meaningful price hike expected only in early 2027. SK Hynix stands to benefit disproportionately given its larger share of HBM agreements this year.

The company enters this period on rock-solid footing. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit 52.6 trillion won, operating profit reached 37.6 trillion won, and the operating margin clocked in at 72%. Cash and equivalents grew to 54.3 trillion won while interest-bearing debt dropped to 19.3 trillion won. Management has also flagged that AI demand is broadening beyond large-model training toward agentic applications requiring real-time inference across multiple service environments, which should expand the need for DRAM and NAND alike.

Samsung, meanwhile, is accelerating its own HBM4 production for the second half of 2026, threatening SK Hynix’s lead in quarterly HBM revenue. On the supply chain front, a new bottleneck is emerging: ABF substrates, a key packaging material for high-performance chips, are growing scarce as AI demand overwhelms capacity. Even if memory chips are available, substrate shortages could delay production schedules.

The optimism extends well beyond individual analysts. Nomura Securities has argued that a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 is appropriate for leading memory makers, matching valuations for global foundry players. The supercycle is also boosting the broader Korean tech sector’s return on equity. The PLUS Global HBM Semiconductor ETF, which allocates 75–80% of its portfolio to SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, has delivered a three-year return of 676.67% as of May 20, with SK Hynix alone contributing 92.9% of that gain in the last three months.

For the rally to sustain, the market needs to see both continued HBM volume growth and tangible progress on the next generation. Bernstein’s April data confirms the near-term engine is humming, but the price target jump from Shinhan reflects a bet that the supercycle will push margins and earnings far beyond current levels. The coming earnings season will be the first test of whether SK Hynix can close the gap between what the data show and what analysts now expect.