SK Hynix's $3.8 Million Won Price Target Meets a Surge of Profit-Taking by Top Traders

Shinhan Securities raises target to 3.8M won; stock jumps 11% but Mirae's top 1% traders take profits amid record KOSPI rally and strong retail accumulation.

Shinhan Securities has more than doubled its price target for SK Hynix to 3.8 million won, up from 1.9 million won, citing an accelerated memory supercycle that is sending chip prices into the stratosphere. The call landed just as the stock surged 11.17% on Wednesday, hitting 1.94 million won — but not everyone joined the party. The sharpest traders on Mirae Asset Securities' platform were busy selling.

Until 11 a.m. on Wednesday, SK Hynix topped the sell list among Mirae's so-called "Stock Super Experts" — the top 1% of accounts ranked by prior-month returns. A day earlier, the same group had ranked the stock among their top buys. By Wednesday morning, their buying focus had shifted to Rainbow Robotics, LG Electronics and Samsung Electronics, while SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor and Samsung SDI slid down the list. The pattern points to tactical profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment toward AI memory chips.

The selling coincided with a historic session for the broader Korean market. The KOSPI closed at 7,815.59 points, up 606 points or 8.42% — the largest single-day point gain in the index's history. Institutional investors bought a net 2.9 trillion won, while retail investors turned net sellers for the first time in 11 trading sessions. The rally was fueled by easing U.S. bond yields, falling oil prices, a provisional settlement in Samsung's labor dispute, and fresh momentum from Nvidia's latest quarterly results. Samsung Electronics rose 8.51% alongside SK Hynix's surge.

Yet retail investors have been quietly building positions for months. Data from Samsung Securities shows that customers who held at least one SK Hynix share since November 2025 added to their holdings each month. In December, nearly 15,000 holders bought a net 238 billion won; in January, almost 23,000 bought 432 billion won; in February, over 32,700 bought 620 billion won. The pace accelerated in March, with 47,400 holders — 24.4% of the relevant client group — adding 782 billion won, followed by 843.5 billion won in April. That steady pyramid-building contrasts sharply with the morning selling by Mirae's top-tier traders.

The accumulation is taking place on a rising earnings foundation. According to FnGuide, the consensus estimate for SK Hynix's annual operating profit jumped from around 208 trillion won to 254 trillion won in just one month, while the revenue forecast climbed from 284 trillion to 334 trillion won. The first quarter of 2026 set the stage: SK Hynix posted revenue of 52.6 trillion won and operating profit of 37.6 trillion won, yielding an operating margin of 72%. The stock now trades at 1,940,000 won, less than 2% below its 52-week high from May 13.

Shinhan's analysts argue that the supercycle still has room to run. They expect DRAM average selling prices to surge 273% year-over-year in 2026, with NAND ASPs jumping 292%. A shortage of AI-optimized memory chips is expected to persist until at least 2027, reinforced by easing labor risks in Korea's semiconductor industry. Bernstein estimates that SK Hynix will generate around $7.5 billion in HBM revenue in the second quarter alone, up 25% quarter-on-quarter. However, Samsung Electronics is accelerating its HBM4 production for the second half of 2026, and while SK Hynix still leads in quarterly HBM sales, export volumes have lately plateaued. Pricing for HBM chips is expected to resume rising from early 2027.

A new bottleneck is emerging downstream: ABF substrates, a critical material for packaging high-performance chips, are growing scarce as AI demand strains supply chains. That could delay production schedules even if the chips themselves are available. Nomura Securities views a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 as appropriate for leading memory makers, on par with global foundry firms, as the supercycle lifts the entire Korean tech sector's return on equity.

The market's enthusiasm shows in fund performance. The PLUS Global HBM Semiconductor ETF posted a three-year return of 676.67% as of May 20, with SK Hynix alone contributing 92.9% over the past three months. The three heavyweights — SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron — account for 75–80% of the portfolio. Shinhan's 3.8 million won target implies roughly 96% upside from current levels. Whether the stock can reach that mark will depend on how long the memory supercycle keeps delivering on its promises — and whether the profit-takers prove to have been early or right.