Six Lawmakers Bet on SpaceX as the Space Sector Sells Off

Six U.S. lawmakers purchased SpaceX shares amid a space sector downturn, while ARK Invest bought in and analysts maintain bullish targets despite a 47% stock drop.

While the broader space industry endures one of its worst stretches of the year, a bipartisan group of six U.S. lawmakers has been quietly accumulating SpaceX shares. Their trades, disclosed during a week when the sector was bleeding value, have drawn attention to the widening gap between political insiders and the market’s prevailing pessimism.

The purchases — totaling between $182,000 and $480,000 — were made by five Republicans and one Democrat: Representatives Lisa McClain, John James, Daniel Meuser, William Timmons, John McGuire, and Gilbert Cisneros. Several sit on committees with direct oversight of SpaceX’s military contracts or its Starlink business, adding a layer of scrutiny to the timing. The disclosures land just as the House passed a partial ban on stock trading by lawmakers, though the measure faces long odds in the Senate.

The buying spree unfolded against a grim backdrop for space stocks. Rocket Lab tumbled 9 percent, and AST SpaceMobile dropped 8 percent — even after both companies announced positive developments. Rocket Lab had just secured its largest-ever contract, a $266 million U.S. Space Force deal for 12 suborbital launches with options for six more, plus a new launch site in Kodiak, Alaska. Yet the news failed to stem the tide. AST SpaceMobile, which depends on SpaceX for its satellite launches, is scheduled to send its BlueBird 11, 12, and 13 satellites aboard a Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral on August 5, following the successful deployment of BlueBird 8 through 10 in June.

SpaceX shares hit a fresh 52-week low of €94.15 on Tuesday before staging a modest recovery to close at €102.28 on Wednesday, a gain of 2.28 percent. That still leaves the stock 47.4 percent below its all-time high of €194.46 set on June 16, just days after its IPO. The relative strength index sits at 35.6, signaling oversold conditions but not yet a clear reversal. Annualized volatility of nearly 65 percent underscores the jitters gripping the stock.

Prediction markets remain skeptical. Polymarket puts the probability of SpaceX closing lower on any given day at 56 percent, and only 54 percent of traders expect the stock to stay above €110 by month-end. The lawmakers’ optimism is clearly not shared by the broader trading community.

ARK Joins the Fray as Wall Street Holds Firm

As the stock drifted toward its lows, Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment stepped in. On July 28, the firm bought 124,543 shares worth roughly $14.1 million, spreading the position across several funds including the ARK Innovation ETF and the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF. The move echoes the contrarian bets that have defined Wood’s strategy through market turbulence.

Wall Street analysts, meanwhile, have not budged. Bank of America Securities reiterated its buy rating in July with a price target of $235, while Bernstein sees fair value at $239 — both well above current levels. The disconnect between analyst targets and market action highlights the uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s near-term trajectory.

A Pivotal Two Weeks Ahead

All eyes now turn to August 4, when SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company. Management has scheduled a webcast for 3:30 p.m. Chicago time. Investors are hungry for two key data points: the profitability of the Starlink satellite business and the scale of capital spending on the Starship program. Both will test whether the company’s roughly €1.33 trillion valuation is sustainable.

Just two days later, on August 6, the lock-up period expires, allowing insiders to sell a significant portion of their shares for the first time. That event has historically weighed on newly listed stocks, and SpaceX is no exception. The convergence of earnings and the lock-up expiry creates a uniquely volatile window.

Operationally, the company is pressing ahead. A Falcon 9 is set to launch the NROL-95 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office and U.S. Space Force from Cape Canaveral on Thursday. And on July 24, Starship completed its 13th test flight, achieving an in-space engine relight for the first time — a critical milestone for rapid reusability.

For SpaceX shareholders, the next two weeks will serve as a crucible. The lawmakers’ purchases offer a contrarian signal that some see value at these levels, but the technical indicators and prediction markets counsel caution. Whether Wednesday’s bounce marks the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a pause in a six-week slide will depend on how the market weighs earnings, insider selling, and the steady drumbeat of operational milestones.