Silver Surges as US Jobs Data Plunges to 57,000, Sparking Rate Pivot Bets

Silver prices rocket past $61 after June payrolls miss sharply, boosting rate cut expectations. Fed's Warsh signals dovish shift, while supply constraints and AI demand underpin the rally.

Silver prices rocketed above $61 on Thursday after official US employment data came in far weaker than even the most pessimistic forecasts, confirming a sudden cooling in the labor market that traders immediately read as a green light for the Federal Reserve to abandon its tightening bias.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added just 57,000 new non-farm payrolls in June — the smallest increase in months and a stunning miss against analyst expectations of 110,000 to 115,000. The reading followed an ADP private-sector report earlier in the week that had already rattled markets with a gain of only 98,000 positions, well short of the 118,000 consensus and down from May’s 122,000. The official figure also represents a sharp deceleration from the prior month’s 172,000 job additions.

The twin disappointments sent the dollar tumbling. The US Dollar Index slid 0.3 percent in the wake of the ADP data and extended losses after the BLS release, making dollar-denominated silver cheaper for overseas buyers. Spot silver surged 3.36 percent to around $61.11 per ounce, while the July 2026 futures contract touched $61.38 during intraday trading.

Fed’s Warsh strikes a cautious tone

The jobs shock compounds a delicate moment for the Federal Reserve under new chair Kevin Warsh, who took office on May 22. In his first major policy speech on July 1 in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh acknowledged that inflation risks in the US had “noticeably diminished.” While reaffirming the 2 percent inflation target, he signaled the central bank would move away from rigid forward guidance — a statement markets interpreted as less hawkish than anticipated.

Before the official payrolls figures landed, investors had already priced out any rate hike for the July meeting and assigned a roughly 64 percent probability to a move in September. The 57,000 NFP print is widely expected to slash those odds further. Lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver, a direct tailwind for the metal.

Supply constraints and shifting demand underpin the rally

Beyond the rate narrative, silver’s fundamental picture continues to tighten. On the demand side, the solar industry is gradually reducing its silver consumption per unit as manufacturers adopt more efficient cell designs and, in some cases, substitute copper. However, a powerful counterweight is emerging from artificial intelligence infrastructure. High-performance chips and data centers require advanced thermal management, driving double-digit annual growth in demand for highly conductive precious metals, analysts noted.

On the supply side, the market remains structurally constrained. Most silver output is a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc mining, meaning producers cannot easily ramp up production in response to higher prices. This inelastic supply profile amplifies price moves when demand shifts.

Geopolitical risks add a wildcard

Ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran in Doha are adding another layer of uncertainty. Reports indicate negotiations have made little progress, particularly over Iran’s demand for transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz. A disruption to energy flows through that chokepoint could drive up global inflation and further complicate the Fed’s policy path, creating additional safe-haven demand for silver.

Gold has followed a similar trajectory, climbing back above $4,000 per ounce, while the yield on 10-year US Treasuries slipped to 4.49 percent, providing another supportive backdrop for precious metals.

Eyes on key technical levels

With silver now trading firmly above $60, traders are watching resistance at $63.00 as the next upside target. On the downside, the $55.70 support level remains the critical floor. The volatility from this week’s data — and the uncertainty surrounding both the Fed’s next move and the Iran talks — suggests the metal could test either boundary in the coming sessions.