Silver Shatters the $100 Barrier: A New Era or a Bubble?

Silber Preis XC0009653103

The commodity markets have witnessed a historic event: silver has surged past the critical $100 per ounce threshold for the first time ever. While investors may view this as a windfall, it raises significant concerns among industry analysts. The central question is whether genuine scarcity or speculative excess is driving this unprecedented rally.

• Record Close: The metal finished trading on Friday at $100.89.
• Year-to-Date Gain: Silver has advanced approximately 40% since the start of the year.
• Distance from Low: The current price represents more than a doubling from its 52-week low of $46.90.

A Market Powered by Scarcity and Speculation

The primary engine behind this price explosion is a persistent structural deficit. The physical silver market is now in its fifth consecutive year of supply shortfall. The situation is particularly acute in registered inventories: readily available stockpiles in London vaults recently plummeted to historic lows. Although a modest recovery to just under 200 million ounces was recorded by the end of 2025, levels remain far below the 360 million ounces seen during the 2021 rally.

Reserves are also dwindling at the COMEX in the United States. Since October, approximately 114 million ounces have been withdrawn, representing a loss of metal worth around $11 billion in mere months. This tightening supply is colliding with robust demand.

Retail Investors and Macro Forces Add Fuel

Beyond the fundamental supply gap, retail investment activity is intensifying the momentum. Massive inflows into physically-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a historic short squeeze in the futures market have catapulted prices higher. The gold-to-silver ratio, a key gauge of relative valuation, has collapsed to 50:1. Less than a year ago, this ratio stood above 100:1.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are providing additional tailwinds. A weakening US dollar enhances the appeal of commodities for international buyers, while geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe are driving capital into hard assets.

Caution Emerges as Prices Diverge from Fundamentals

Despite the prevailing euphoria, warnings are growing louder. Michael Widmer, a strategist at Bank of America, estimates the fundamentally justified price for silver is only around $60 per ounce. This implies the current quotation above $100 represents a substantial overvaluation.

A core concern is industrial demand, which is likely to suffer under the weight of record prices. Experts believe demand from the solar industry may have already peaked in 2025. While recycling volumes are increasing, a lack of refinery capacity is currently slowing the return of scrap silver to the market.

Outlook: Correction Risks Mount

The sustainability of this breakout will be tested in the coming days. Analysts at BNP Paribas anticipate potential profit-taking, given the easing physical tightness and the extreme price gains since November. Market attention is now fixed on the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting. Should the Fed hold rates steady while signaling a dovish path forward, it could further fuel speculation in the short term. However, at these price levels, the risk of a sharp correction remains acute.