Silver’s Rocky Path as Traders Await Key US Data

Silber Preis XC0009653103

Silver prices took a breather on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, slipping back below the $82 per ounce threshold. This pullback interrupts a brief recovery, with investors adopting a cautious stance ahead of critical US economic releases. While short-term profit-taking dominates the immediate action, analysts point to persistent structural supply deficits that continue to underpin the metal's longer-term outlook.

The commodity's price action turned negative on Tuesday, declining by approximately 2%. This move brought a sudden halt to Monday's dynamic rally, which had seen silver surge over 6%. Currently, the metal trades roughly 33% below the all-time high of $121.64 per ounce it recorded in late January.

Commenting on the recent extreme volatility, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized the moves as speculative excess, citing activities by Chinese traders. Following the historic sell-off in recent weeks, the market continues its search for a stable price floor.

All Eyes on US Economic Indicators

Market participants are now squarely focused on upcoming US labor market and inflation reports. These figures are viewed as pivotal for forecasting the future policy path of the Federal Reserve.

• Rate Projections: Current market pricing suggests interest rates will remain unchanged in March, but anticipates two potential cuts later in the year.
• Currency Impact: A recently softer US dollar had provided support for silver by making the dollar-denominated asset cheaper for international buyers.

Adding to the narrative, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that any significant softening in the labor market could necessitate further interest rate reductions.

Structural Support and Chinese Uncertainty

Despite the current price weakness, the fundamental backdrop remains sturdy. The Silver Institute forecasts 2025 will mark the fifth consecutive year of a structural production deficit, estimated at 95 million ounces. Unabated industrial demand, particularly from the solar panel and electric vehicle sectors, is the primary driver. Since silver is largely mined as a by-product of other metals, its supply is notoriously difficult to ramp up quickly in response to price signals.

China remains a key variable, however. While Chinese buyers have reportedly used the recent price dip to accumulate physical holdings, the onset of Lunar New Year celebrations could see this demand temporarily dry up, potentially creating a liquidity vacuum.

The immediate direction for silver is likely to be determined on Wednesday with the release of fresh US inflation data. Should the numbers reinforce the case for impending rate cuts, the market's attention may swing back to the powerful structural supply shortage. Until the monetary policy picture becomes clearer, trading conditions are expected to remain nervous and volatile.