Siemens Shares Have Room to Run as Bernstein Flags a 20% Valuation Gap

Bernstein sees 20% upside for Siemens stock to €300, citing a valuation gap with peers, Healthineers spin-off, and a potential €10B buyback.

Siemens stock is trading at its highest level in three months, but analysts at Bernstein argue the rally is just getting started. With a price target of €300, the US investment bank sees roughly 20% upside from current levels near €251 — a call built on what it describes as a glaring valuation disconnect with peers.

The Valuation Argument

The core of Bernstein’s thesis is straightforward: Siemens trades at 13 times expected 2027 operating earnings, while rivals such as Schneider Electric and ABB command an average multiple of 19. That six-turn gap, the analysts say, represents a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign. The stock has already gained nearly 23% over the past month, pushing it well above its long-term moving average, but Bernstein believes the re-rating still has further to run.

Healthineers Spin-Off Takes Shape

A key catalyst for closing that valuation gap is the planned separation of Siemens Healthineers. The medical technology subsidiary will be deconsolidated from the parent company’s balance sheet in May 2026, with the formal shareholder vote scheduled for February 2027. Siemens intends to distribute roughly 30% of Healthineers shares directly to its own investors, streamlining the group into a leaner industrial and digitalization-focused entity. The move is designed to make the core business — dubbed “ONE Tech” — more transparent and easier for investors to value on its own merits.

A Buyback Pipeline That Could Hit €10 Billion

Alongside the portfolio overhaul, Bernstein expects a significant expansion of Siemens’ share buyback program. The current €6 billion repurchase plan is roughly 90% complete, and the analysts anticipate a new mandate of at least €10 billion. The cash to fund it would come from operating cash flow and proceeds from stake sales, they argue.

Lithium Bet Adds Another Layer

Siemens is also deepening its involvement in the battery supply chain. The company has committed up to €67 million as a technology partner in the “Lionheart” lithium project, a €2.2 billion venture operated by Vulcan Energy in the Upper Rhine Graben region. The project aims to produce 24,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide annually — enough to supply roughly 500,000 electric vehicles. Siemens will contribute technical expertise through 2035, combining geothermal energy extraction with lithium production.

Record Orders and a Raised Outlook

The operational backdrop supports the bull case. Siemens posted a record order backlog of €120 billion in the first quarter, while revenue climbed 8%. Management responded by raising its full-year profit guidance. The company’s Smart Infrastructure division, which benefits from grid expansion and data center construction, is seen as a particular bright spot.

What to Watch on May 13

All eyes now turn to May 13, when Siemens reports second-quarter results. Analysts will be watching for signs that the Healthineers segment is already being classified as a discontinued operation — an accounting step that would make the core industrial value more visible. A capital markets day later in the second half of the year is expected to feature updated medium-term targets.

Other banks remain constructive. UBS maintains a buy rating with a €255 price target, while Goldman Sachs anticipates strong organic growth ahead of the upcoming earnings release. The question for investors is whether the current valuation discount reflects a genuine opportunity — or whether the market is signaling caution that Bernstein’s €300 target has yet to account for.