Siemens Eyes €300 as Bernstein Flags Catch-Up Potential Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Siemens shares surge 3.6% after Bernstein upgrade, fueled by record €120B backlog, $390M NYC transit deal, and planned Healthineers deconsolidation.

The Munich-based industrial giant is heading into its second-quarter earnings release on May 13 with a full head of steam. Record order books, a major New York transit contract, and a fresh analyst upgrade have combined to push the stock within striking distance of its 52-week high.

Analyst Sees Room to Run

Bernstein Research analyst Alasdair Leslie raised his price target on Siemens to €300 on Monday, maintaining an “Outperform” rating. The upgrade stems from what Leslie views as an unjustified sell-off in recent months, with concerns over artificial intelligence risks, cyclical headwinds, and the group’s structural complexity already baked into the share price. He expects a revaluation over the next six to twelve months, pointing to two catalysts: the planned deconsolidation of Siemens Healthineers, which sharpens the corporate focus, and the company’s capacity for further share buybacks.

The stock responded by climbing 3.6 percent to €251.85, leading the DAX on the day. That leaves it just under four percent shy of its 52-week peak of €261.55. By comparison, rivals Schneider Electric and ABB have posted gains of 20 to 33 percent since the start of the year, while Siemens has managed only around 4.5 percent — a gap market watchers say Leslie’s analysis directly addresses.

Record Orders and a $390 Million US Win

The group’s order book has rarely looked healthier. In the first fiscal quarter, orders jumped 10 percent to €21.4 billion, while revenue topped €19 billion. The backlog has swelled to a historic €120 billion, providing a thick cushion for the months ahead. That performance prompted management to raise its full-year profit guidance.

Adding to the momentum, Siemens Mobility landed a contract worth roughly $390 million with New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Working alongside partner L.K. Comstock, the division will modernize signaling and safety technology on the Fulton-Liberty Lines. The project involves replacing century-old signal equipment with the “Trainguard MT” radio-based train control system across 65 kilometers of track, enabling train intervals of 90 seconds. The deal runs for 25 years, including maintenance and extension options.

Healthineers Spin-Off and Software Expansion

The most significant strategic move on the horizon is the planned deconsolidation of Siemens Healthineers. Management intends to distribute 30 percent of the medical technology subsidiary’s shares directly to Siemens shareholders, with the precise terms to be announced in the second quarter. The company has signaled its progressive dividend policy will remain intact after the separation.

Alongside the exit from Healthineers, Siemens is doubling down on software. The acquisition of Dotmatics opens the door to the life sciences market, expanding the addressable opportunity by $11 billion. Management expects annual synergies of over $500 million from the deal over the long term.

AI Investment Flows East as EU Rules Bite

CEO Roland Busch has been vocal about the regulatory headwinds facing the group’s industrial AI ambitions. He criticized the European Union’s AI Act for treating industrial applications like consumer products, arguing the rules are driving investment away from the bloc. Siemens plans to invest €1 billion in industrial AI, but Busch indicated that, due to the heavy regulatory burden, the spending will be directed primarily to the United States and China.

Smart Infrastructure Leads the Charge

When Siemens reports on May 13, all eyes will be on the Smart Infrastructure division. The unit posted a 22 percent surge in orders last quarter, fueled by booming demand for new data centers — a trend that shows no signs of slowing.

For the current fiscal year, analysts estimate a dividend of roughly €5.64 per share, up from €5.35 for fiscal 2025. With the stock now trading above its 200-day moving average — a technical milestone crossed in mid-April — the stage is set for what could be a pivotal earnings release.