Siemens Energy Stock Can't Catch a Break Despite Goldman's Conviction and €17.7bn Order Haul

Record €17.7B orders and Goldman Sachs conviction list endorsement contrast with stock stagnation. Grid Technologies leads with 41.5% order surge as data center demand fuels long-term growth.

Siemens Energy is firing on all cylinders operationally, yet its shares remain stuck in a rut. The industrial group booked a record order intake of €17.7bn in the second quarter, up nearly 30% year-on-year, and just received a coveted spot on Goldman Sachs’ “European Conviction List” – the bank’s most bullish seal of approval. But the stock has barely budged, trading at €159.92, roughly 18% below its April peak of €195.54 (and an all-time high of €191.66 recorded that same month). The 50-day moving average of €168.19 remains out of reach, and the shares have shed 8.43% in the past seven days alone.

Goldman analyst Ajay Patel argues the market is underpricing the company’s structural advantage. He placed Siemens Energy on the “European Conviction List – Directors’ Cut” and reiterated a €212 price target, raised from €185 in mid-May. JPMorgan is even more bullish at €225. Patel expects management to lift medium-term targets when it reports full-year results and to announce fresh details on shareholder distributions. His 2030 operating earnings estimate sits 10% above the consensus, driven by what he calls a “structural winner” in the age of AI – the surging electricity demand from data centres.

That narrative is already visible in the numbers. At the Datacloud Global Congress in Cannes this week, where Siemens Energy is a patron sponsor, executives highlighted that roughly 25% of all gas service orders now come from data centre projects. In the second quarter alone, 5 GW of the 12 GW total grid and gas orders were linked to hyperscalers such as AWS, Microsoft and Google, whose AI workloads require ever more power. By 2030, data centres could consume 4% of global electricity, and Siemens Energy is positioning itself as a one-stop shop for gas turbines, transformers and network infrastructure.

The real engine of growth, however, is the Grid Technologies division. It reported an order intake of nearly €7bn in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, a comparable increase of 41.5%. Revenue rose to €3.067bn, up 12.3%, and the unit is targeting full-year revenue growth of 25-27% with an operating margin of 18-20%. For the group as a whole, comparable revenue growth of 14-16% is expected, alongside an earnings margin before special items of 10-12% and free cash flow of around €8bn.

Moody’s gave its own vote of confidence at the end of May. The agency affirmed Siemens Energy’s Baa1 long-term rating and raised the outlook from stable to positive, citing improved credit metrics and a stronger financial profile.

The stock has climbed 80% so far this calendar year, but that masks a recent slide that began after the spring rally. The company’s order backlog offers some reassurance: the second half of fiscal 2026 is already 93% secured by contracts, and even fiscal 2027 is 80% covered. To further reward shareholders, Siemens Energy bought back 12.6 million shares between March and May at an average price of €158.50, completing the first tranche of what began as a €2bn repurchase programme. Thanks to robust cash flows, the programme was later raised to €3bn. Combined with a €0.6bn dividend, shareholders will receive €3.6bn in total distributions this fiscal year.

Management is now on a roadshow circuit through European financial hubs – Munich, Copenhagen, Stockholm – with a stop at the J.P. Morgan European Industrials Conference on June 17. The quiet period begins on July 1 ahead of third-quarter results due on August 5. Until then, the market remains in wait-and-see mode, weighing record orders and strong analyst backing against a share price that has yet to catch up with the underlying momentum.