Siemens Energy Secures Goldman and Berenberg Votes of Confidence as 100 GW Backlog Takes Shape

Despite a 12% weekly drop, Siemens Energy receives strong endorsements from Berenberg and Goldman Sachs, citing structural grid-tech demand and robust backlog.

The recent seven-day slide that has wiped roughly 12% off Siemens Energy shares has done little to cool the enthusiasm of two of Europe’s leading investment houses. Both Berenberg and Goldman Sachs have this week reinforced their bullish stance on the stock, pointing to a structural surge in grid-technology demand that they believe will lift the company well beyond its current trading level.

Berenberg has lifted its target price to €205, maintaining a “Buy” rating, while Goldman Sachs has added the stock to its exclusive “European Conviction List – Directors' Cut.” The endorsement comes at a moment when the shares are hovering around €161, having shed around 11% in the past week. Yet the long-term picture remains impressive: the stock is still up roughly 31% since the start of the year and has more than doubled versus its year-ago level.

Grid backlog provides exceptional visibility

At the heart of the Berenberg analysis is the order book, which currently stands at 87 gigawatts of firmly booked contracts. The analysts see this swelling to 100 GW by the end of 2026. Within the portfolio, the grid technologies segment is the standout performer. Berenberg projects revenues there of €14 billion in 2026, €17 billion in 2027 and €20 billion in 2028, with operating margins of 20–21%. Crucially, the firm’s internal model for 2030 sits roughly 10% above the market consensus.

Goldman Sachs analyst Ajay Patel echoes that optimism, describing Siemens Energy as a “structural winner” in the age of artificial intelligence. Soaring electricity demand from data centres is driving massive investment in power grids, and Patel expects the company to raise its medium-term targets when it publishes full-year results in September. He also anticipates the first concrete distribution plans to be unveiled at that point.

Cash returns add to the narrative

Siemens Energy is already putting cash behind its confidence. An initial €2 billion share buyback programme has been expanded by a further €1 billion to €3 billion, thanks to strong free cash flow. Combined with a dividend payout of €0.6 billion, total shareholder distributions for the current fiscal year amount to €3.6 billion.

The operational targets for fiscal 2026 are equally robust: the company expects comparable revenue growth of 14–16% and an adjusted EBIT margin of 10–12%. Grid technologies is targeting a 25–27% revenue expansion at an 18–20% margin. Visibility on that growth is unusually high: 93% of the expected orders for the second half of the fiscal year are already secured, and roughly 80% for the following year — levels that analysts note are rare even by international industrial standards.

Technical picture still needs repair

Despite the fundamental strength, the short-term chart is less forgiving. The shares closed at €160.90 on Monday, marginally above the 100-day moving average near €159 — a key technical support. The 50-day line at around €167.56, and more importantly the 20-day average at €175.30, both sit above the current price. A clear buy signal would only emerge on a break back above the 20-day line, which would require a roughly 8% rally from current levels.

JPMorgan, which rates the stock “Overweight” with a €225 target, offers the most ambitious end-of-bull case among the sell-side. The broader analyst consensus stands at €186.30, while Berenberg’s revised €205 target sits comfortably above that.

The next major catalyst arrives on 5 August 2026, when Siemens Energy reports results for the third fiscal quarter. By then, investors will have a clearer picture of whether the grid-technology momentum and the turnaround at wind-power subsidiary Gamesa are gathering the pace that the recent analyst upgrades anticipate.