Siemens Energy’s Two-Speed Market: Record Orders and a €3B Buyback vs. a 17% Share Slide

Siemens Energy doubles buyback to €3B as stock drops 17% to oversold RSI 32, yet fundamentals shine with record €17.7B orders, raised guidance, and 32% analyst upside.

A curious dynamic is playing out at Siemens Energy. While the company buys its own shares at a furious pace, the stock has lost roughly 17% over the past month, sliding to €148.30 and leaving it 24% below the all-time high hit in April. The relative strength index has dropped to 32, a level that often signals oversold conditions. Yet management is stepping in as the seller of last resort.

The buyback programme has shifted into a higher gear. After completing the first tranche of 12.6 million shares at an average price of €158.50 in just 77 trading days — well ahead of schedule — the group doubled the repurchase budget for the current fiscal year to €3 billion. The second tranche, launched in early June, allows for up to €1 billion in purchases, capped at 57 million shares. Between 4 and 7 June, Siemens Energy scooped up 237,040 of its own shares via Xetra and other European trading venues. The overall programme remains capped at €6 billion and runs through fiscal 2028, with €1 billion earmarked for deployment by September 2026. The buyback serves both employee compensation and share cancellation.

The firepower for this aggressive capital return comes from the balance sheet. Free cash flow before taxes jumped 42% in the second quarter to nearly €2 billion. Including the dividend already paid out, total shareholder returns for fiscal 2026 are on track to reach €3.6 billion.

Operationally, the disconnect between market sentiment and fundamentals is stark. Siemens Energy booked a record €17.7 billion in orders in its most recent quarter, a 29.5% increase, pushing the total backlog to €154 billion. In response, management raised its revenue growth forecast for fiscal 2026 to 14-16%, up from the previous 11-13% range. The margin target was also lifted to 10-12%, and net profit is expected to reach around €4 billion.

The grid division is the standout performer. Grid Technologies is targeting revenue growth of 25-27% with an operating margin of 18-20%, fuelled by insatiable demand from data centres and the broader electrification push. Analysts point to structural tailwinds from AI-driven power needs and a backlog of energy equipment orders.

Street opinion remains heavily weighted to the upside. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it a buy, four a hold and two a sell. The average price target stands at €195.08, implying a 32% upside from current levels. JPMorgan, which has an Overweight rating, sees the stock at €225, citing the secular growth in grid technology and the company's exposure to the data centre boom.

The next major catalyst arrives on 5 August, when Siemens Energy reports third-quarter earnings. Until then, the quiet period begins on 1 July, leaving the buyback as the only active signal from management — a steady reminder that, at least inside the company, the shares look cheap.