Siemens Energy’s Record €154bn Order Backlog and Accelerated €3bn Buyback Highlight Confidence Despite Skeptical Analysts

Siemens Energy posts bumper earnings, record €154bn orders, and €3bn buyback; shares rebound as analysts split on valuation.

Siemens Energy managed a rare feat last week: it unveiled a bumper earnings beat, an expanded share buyback, and a record order book — yet the stock initially slid. The dip proved short-lived, with shares clawing back to €177.94 on Tuesday and edging to around €178 a day later. The quick rebound reflects the tension between formidable operational momentum and a valuation that has already repriced the cycle.

The source of the selloff was not the numbers themselves. Orders in the fiscal second quarter hit €17.7bn, a comparable increase of nearly 30%. That pushed the total order backlog to an unprecedented €154bn — meaning the group is booking business far faster than it can execute. Revenue advanced to €10.3bn, while profit before special items reached €1.16bn. Net income came in at €835m. The real headline, however, was the bonfire of cash: management lifted the buyback target for the current year from €2bn to €3bn, citing a first-half cash flow surge. So far, €1.8bn has already been repurchased, and with the €0.6bn dividend paid in March, total shareholder distributions hit €3.6bn. The broader buyback programme runs to 2028 and allows for up to €6bn.

The demand surge is concentrated in the US, where AI-driven data centre construction and grid modernisation are pulling in orders at a blistering pace. Gas Services booked a historical record of €8.9bn in new business, while Grid Technologies grew 42% to €7bn. Even the long-troubled wind turbine subsidiary, Siemens Gamesa, showed signs of stabilisation: its operating loss narrowed to just €44m from almost €250m a year earlier. The improvement allowed management to raise the full-year revenue growth forecast to a range of 14–16%, with an operating margin of 10–12% and net income of around €4bn.

Analysts responded with a flurry of price-target upgrades but also a sharp divide in conviction. JPMorgan lifted its target to €225 and kept an “Overweight” rating. Goldman Sachs went to €212, while Deutsche Bank and Berenberg both set €200. Deutsche analyst Gael de-Bray noted the upwardly revised profit forecasts and pointed to the medium-term targets the company plans to unveil in November. On the bearish side, Barclays raised its target only to €110 and maintained “Equal Weight”, arguing that the stock already discounts an extraordinary cycle. mwb research stayed at “Sell” with a €100 target, believing the operational strength is fully priced in. The spread between the most bullish and most bearish calls now exceeds 125%.

That divergence underscores a market trying to decide how much of the AI-driven upswing is already baked into a share price that has more than doubled over the past twelve months — a gain of 141% — and sits 45% higher year to date. The 52-week high of €188 is now only about 5% above recent levels. The next catalyst will be whether the US business can sustain its current velocity. If it does, the buyback might be topped up again. If not, the valuation debate will only intensify.