Siemens Energy's Full Order Book Meets a Technical Crossroads

Siemens Energy shares near all-time high on booming AI-driven demand and record profits, but face technical headwinds and scrutiny of its wind unit turnaround.

Siemens Energy shares are trading just below their all-time high, but the path forward hinges on a mix of operational strength and looming technical signals. The stock, currently around €168, sits roughly 1.7% below the record peak of €170.86 set last Friday. This pullback has introduced the first chart-based warning signs of the year, with the weekly chart hinting at a potential double-top pattern that often signals fading momentum.

The fundamental picture, however, could hardly be more robust. The company’s production capacity for gas turbines is fully booked through 2028, with order books for the Gas Services segment already filling for 2029 and initial reservations in place for 2030. This exceptional demand is being driven in large part by the AI boom, with operators of data centers accounting for a quarter of all new orders. A recently expanded partnership with Amazon Web Services further cements Siemens Energy's position as a critical infrastructure partner for this high-growth sector.

Financially, the first quarter laid a formidable foundation. Net profit nearly tripled year-over-year to €746 million. New orders surged by approximately 34% to €17.6 billion, pushing the order backlog to a record €146 billion. For the 2026 fiscal year, management is targeting revenue growth of 11% to 13% and an after-tax profit between €3 billion and €4 billion.

Alongside operational execution, a substantial share buyback program provides additional support. Since early March, the company has been actively repurchasing its own stock, with a plan to buy back up to €2 billion in shares by September 2026. A long-term framework even envisions a total volume of up to €6 billion.

Despite this strength, analysts point to a persistent challenge: the wind power unit Siemens Gamesa. While its quarterly loss was contained to €46 million and management aims for an operational break-even within the current fiscal year, its performance remains a key variable. The upcoming half-year report on May 12 will be scrutinized for confirmation that this turnaround is on track. A positive trend there could further bolster the stock's valuation.

In the near term, market sentiment may also be influenced by an external factor: quarterly results from US competitor GE Vernova. Its shares have rallied roughly 210% over the past twelve months, even outpacing Siemens Energy's impressive 160% annual gain. Strong numbers from the American rival could reinforce positive sector sentiment, while a disappointment might amplify any existing correction pressure.

Potential political risks, such as new US import tariffs, are viewed as manageable by Siemens Energy's leadership. With 28 local production sites in North America, the company expects tariff-related costs in the low triple-digit million-euro range for 2026.

For now, the equity holds its title as the best performer in Germany's DAX index this year, up about 37% since January. Yet with technical indicators like RSI and MACD showing bearish divergences and an open chart gap down at €150.82, the stock's next major move will test whether its record order books can outweigh the charts.