Siemens Energy's €154bn Backlog and Raised Earnings Forecast Fail to Halt Share Slide — Roadshow Aims to Ease Margin Fears

Siemens Energy shares fall 14% in 30 days despite €154bn order backlog and raised guidance. Management roadshow seeks to prove backlog-to-profit conversion amid high volatility and P/E of 37x.

A record order book, an upgraded profit forecast, and a €1bn share buyback — none of it has been enough to keep Siemens Energy's stock from sliding. Over the past 30 days, the shares have shed 14.21%, sliding to €159.32 and slipping 5.38% below their 50-day moving average of €168.39. The 52-week high of €195.54, set on 24 April 2026, now sits 18.52% higher. Against that backdrop, the management team has taken to the road across Europe to convince investors that the company can convert its enormous order backlog into real profits.

The numbers on the operational side are striking. In the second quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, Siemens Energy booked around €17.7bn in new orders, pushing the total order backlog to €154bn. The surge was powered by two core divisions: Gas Services and Grid Technologies, which are riding a wave of European grid upgrades and US demand driven by AI data centres. One single lighthouse project in the Baltic Sea alone contributed over €1bn. That momentum prompted the board to raise its full-year guidance, with comparable revenue growth now expected at 14% to 16%, up from the previous 11% to 13% range.

On the bottom line, the company now targets a net profit of roughly €4bn, with an earnings margin of 10% to 12%. Free cash flow before taxes is projected at about €8bn, providing ample headroom for the €1bn share buyback programme that kicked off at the start of June. The improved visibility also flows from the record cash generation, which some market watchers see as a validation of the strategy, even as the equity market remains unconvinced in the near term.

Despite the year-to-date gain of nearly 30%, the stock has lost momentum since the spring rally. The RSI has dipped to 39.7, nudging into oversold territory, and the annualised volatility remains high at 41.47%. The forward price-to-earnings multiple for fiscal 2026 stands at roughly 37 times — an ambitious level relative to industrial peers. Analysts have set price targets ranging from €175 to €225, suggesting that the sell-off may have gone too far, but the market is waiting for proof that the order pile can be translated into margin expansion.

To that end, Siemens Energy's investor relations team is criss-crossing Europe. After a kick-off in Zurich, the schedule includes stops in Munich on 9 June, followed by presentations in Copenhagen and Stockholm on 10–11 June, and a featured appearance at the J.P. Morgan conference in London on 17 June, where CFO Maria Ferraro is slated to speak. The key question from investors: can supply chains keep pace with the rapid growth, and will the margin target of 10% to 12% hold as execution complexity rises?

The next major checkpoint comes on 5 August 2026, when Siemens Energy publishes its third-quarter results. By then, the market will have had a chance to digest the messages from the roadshow and assess whether the cash flow trajectory and wind power progress justify a re-rating. For now, the buyer of last resort appears to be the company itself, armed with a €1bn buyback and a record order book that, for the moment, has not been enough to arrest the slide.