Siemens Energy Races to €3bn Buyback as Record Orders Fail to Lift Shares — Roadshow Targets Investor Skepticism

Record €154bn backlog and raised guidance fail to lift shares, as Siemens Gamesa drags. €3bn buyback and European roadshow aim to close perception gap.

The numbers are extraordinary — a record order book, double-digit revenue growth and a free cash flow surge — yet Siemens Energy’s stock continues to slide. The industrial group has responded with an accelerated buyback programme and a European roadshow aimed at bridging the gap between operational momentum and market perception.

Shares in the Munich-based company traded near €160 on Tuesday, down roughly 9% over the past seven days and around 18% below their 52-week peak. The retreat comes despite a second-quarter performance that saw order intake jump 29.5% to €17.7bn, pushing the backlog to a staggering €154bn. With 93% of the second half already covered by contracts, visibility is unusually high.

Management has not been shy about raising its sights. The full-year revenue growth forecast now stands at 14% to 16%, up from a previous 11% to 13% range. Operating margin is expected to land between 10% and 12%, with net profit exceeding €4bn and free cash flow before tax reaching roughly €8bn. The grid technology division, in particular, is firing on all cylinders, lifting its own revenue growth projection to 25%-27% and targeting a margin of 18%-20%.

Investors, however, appear to be looking past the headlines. The lingering drag from Siemens Gamesa, the onshore wind turbine unit, continues to weigh on sentiment. Management has promised the division will reach breakeven in the second half, but the market seems to be demanding proof rather than pledges.

To reinforce the message, Siemens Energy kicked off a roadshow at the Berenberg Innovation Seminar in Zurich, with additional stops planned in Munich, Copenhagen and Stockholm. The tour is designed to convince institutional investors that the stock’s valuation — trading at a roughly 20% discount to the average analyst target of €191.40 — does not reflect the underlying cash generation.

The buyback programme offers the most tangible signal. The company completed its first €2bn tranche in just 77 trading days between March and May, repurchasing roughly 12.6 million shares at an average price of €158.50. That is well ahead of the original August deadline. Now the total buyback for the fiscal year has been increased to €3bn, up from an earlier €2bn ceiling, though the overall programme through 2028 remains capped at €6bn.

Alongside the already distributed dividend, total shareholder returns for fiscal 2026 are set to reach €3.6bn. The latest tranche of up to €1bn is running through September 30 and could see up to 57 million shares repurchased, some of which will be used for compensation programmes or cancelled.

The strong cash flows underpinning these moves are hard to dispute. Free cash flow before tax jumped 42% in the second quarter to nearly €2bn, driven by customer advance payments and improved operational results. The acquisition of Northern Ireland-based Camlin Group, which specialises in grid monitoring and data analytics, adds further depth to the digital infrastructure story that management is betting on as a long-term growth driver.

Analyst consensus remains broadly supportive. JPMorgan rates the stock overweight with a €225 target, Jefferies sees €215, Goldman Sachs €212 and Deutsche Bank €200. The average of 25 analyst estimates sits at €191.40 — a level implying roughly 20% upside from current levels.

The next concrete evidence of delivery will come on August 5, 2026, when Siemens Energy reports third-quarter results. Until then, the roadshow will be doing the talking. The quiet period begins July 1.