Siemens Energy: Buyback Pace Accelerates as Pre-Close Call Looms Over a Stock in Retreat

Siemens Energy repurchases €322M in shares but stock drops 8% in a week. Market awaits pre-close call for clarity on Gamesa turnaround and cash flow outlook.

Siemens Energy is buying its own shares at a relentless clip — more than €322m worth in less than four weeks — yet the stock has shed nearly 8% in the past seven trading days. That disconnect between corporate confidence and market sentiment is about to be tested when management hosts its pre-close call later today, a session that could either validate the turnaround narrative or sharpen the scepticism.

Since 4 June, Siemens Energy has repurchased just over 2 million shares at an average price of €157.42, according to the latest weekly update covering trading from 22 to 26 June. That accounts for more than a third of the second buyback tranche, which is capped at €1bn and runs until the end of September 2026. The overarching target remains a €6bn share repurchase programme by the close of fiscal 2028. The buying is spread across Xetra and three multilateral trading venues — CBOE DXE, Aquis Exchange Europe and Turquoise Europe — underscoring the systematic, disciplined approach.

The buyback sits on a sharply improved financial foundation. In the second quarter, management lifted its free cash flow before tax forecast to roughly €8bn for the full year, while raising the 2026 revenue growth outlook to 14–16% from an earlier 11–13%. The operating margin before special items is expected to land between 10% and 12%, with after-tax profit targeted at around €4bn. Including the dividend already paid, total capital returns to shareholders could reach €3.6bn in the current fiscal year.

Those numbers rest on a record order backlog of €154bn, fed by a 30% surge in second?quarter order intake to €17.7bn. Moody’s acknowledged the momentum in early June by upgrading the outlook to “positive”. But the share price tells a different story. At €157.86, the stock trades nearly 19% below its 52?week high of €195.54 reached in April, and the 50?day moving average of €168.40 sits well above the current level. On a seven?day view, the decline has been almost 8%.

The market’s reluctance to celebrate appears rooted in two factors: valuation and the lingering Gamesa headache. At an estimated price?to?earnings ratio of roughly 38 for fiscal 2026, a good deal of operational perfection was already baked into the share price. Meanwhile, Siemens Gamesa narrowed its operating loss to €44m in the second quarter — an improvement, but still a loss. Until the wind turbine business turns consistently profitable, it will remain a drag on sentiment and a source of earnings uncertainty.

Deutsche Bank Research is undeterred, sticking with a €200 price target. The immediate catalyst is tonight’s pre?close call — a closed session that often sets the tone for the run?up to quarterly results. After that, a quiet period begins on 1 July, with the official third?quarter figures due on 5 August. If management can convince investors that Gamesa is on a clear path to breakeven and that the record backlog is converting into cash at a healthy clip, the recent slide could prove a buying opportunity. If doubts persist, the buyback machine will have its work cut out to support the stock.