Siemens Energy: Activist Demands Spin-Off as Record Cash Flows Fuel €3.6 Billion Payout

Siemens Energy expands €3.6B shareholder return, but activist Anamyn Capital demands Gamesa separation to unlock 60% upside. Core business surges.

Siemens Energy has wrapped up the first leg of its share buyback programme and instantly pulled the trigger on an expanded second tranche, distributing a total of €3.6 billion to shareholders this fiscal year. But the feel-good story around capital returns is being challenged by an activist investor calling for a more radical restructuring — one that could unlock a 60% upside for equity holders.

Anamyn Capital has written directly to management demanding a full separation of Siemens Gamesa, the wind turbine division that continues to bleed cash. Co-founder Charlie Penner argues that Gamesa’s losses are suppressing the valuation of the company’s booming core operations. A complete spin-off, he contends, could deliver a 60% return to shareholders. Chief executive Christian Bruch has publicly rejected the idea, insisting the group will fix Gamesa from within rather than sell it off.

Buyback Accelerates After Strong Cash Generation

Between 4 March and 19 May 2026, Siemens Energy repurchased exactly 12.6 million of its own shares, equivalent to 1.465% of share capital, at an average price of €158.50 each. The original buyback programme had a volume of €2 billion, but the company added an extra €1 billion after free cash flow surged. Together with a €0.6 billion dividend paid in March, total shareholder distributions for 2026 stand at €3.6 billion.

The second tranche is already underway. Repurchased shares are earmarked either for employee incentive programmes or cancellation, which would permanently boost earnings per share.

The buying spree was made possible by a dramatic improvement in cash generation. Second-quarter free cash flow before taxes jumped 42% to nearly €1.98 billion, and management now expects around €8 billion for the full year — double the original forecast.

Gamesa: Progress, but Breakeven Is the Benchmark

While the activist campaign heats up, Gamesa’s numbers are slowly improving. The operating loss at the wind unit narrowed to €44 million in the second quarter from €249 million a year earlier. The second half of 2026 is where the real turnaround is supposed to land.

Management has made Gamesa’s breakeven an explicit condition of the confirmed annual guidance. If the division misses that target, a profit warning could follow — irrespective of how well the rest of the group performs.

Core Business on a Tear

Meanwhile, the grid and gas turbine businesses are firing on all cylinders. Order intake rocketed nearly 30% to a record €17.7 billion, pushing the order backlog to €154 billion. The book-to-bill ratio hit 1.72. Grid Technologies now targets an operating margin of 18% to 20%, with revenue growth of 25% to 27%. In the US, orders doubled.

Based on this momentum, Siemens Energy raised its full-year outlook: revenue growth of 14% to 16%, an EBIT margin of 10% to 12%, net income around €4 billion, and free cash flow before taxes of roughly €8 billion.

Analyst Optimism Pushes Price Targets Higher

JPMorgan lifted its price target to €225 with an “Overweight” rating, citing improved long-term prospects. Berenberg set a target of €200 and “Buy”, pointing to sustained order momentum. Goldman Sachs is at €212, also above the current share price of around €182.

The stock has gained 48% since the start of the year and stands about 3% below its 52-week high. It sits 119% above the June 2025 trough — all of which has made the valuation a talking point.

At 67.4 times earnings, Siemens Energy trades far above the peer average of 38.4x and the European electrical engineering sector’s 29.5x. Analysts consider 51.8x to be fair value. The operational strength is clearly priced in, with a premium on top.

What to Watch on 5 August

On 5 August, Siemens Energy will report third-quarter results. If Gamesa shows clear progress toward breakeven, Anamyn’s spin-off argument may lose traction. If the turnaround stalls, pressure on Bruch — and on the guidance — will only grow. Either way, the tension between activist ambition and record-setting cash returns is set to define the stock’s next leg.