Siemens Energy Accelerates Buyback to €3 Billion as Berlin’s 12 GW Gas Plan Fuels Analyst Optimism

Siemens Energy accelerates share repurchases to €3B, fueled by a 42% cash flow surge and €154B order backlog; analysts raise targets, dividend forecast climbs to €1.84.

Siemens Energy is turning operational momentum into direct shareholder returns at a pace that has surprised even the market. The company has ramped up its share repurchase programme so aggressively that it now plans to spend up to €3 billion in the current fiscal year, a full billion more than originally budgeted. The acceleration is backed by a surge in cash flow that shows no sign of slowing, while a newly unveiled German government tender for 12 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity adds a fresh policy tailwind for the group’s turbine business.

The buyback push has been relentless in recent weeks. Since the programme began in early March 2026, Siemens Energy has scooped up more than 12.4 million of its own shares. In the past trading week alone, it collected over 800,000 shares via Xetra and other venues. The faster cadence stems directly from a stronger-than-expected operational cash inflow that has given management the confidence to raise the spending cap for the current year. The overall framework, however, remains unchanged at €6 billion through 2028. Including the dividend paid out in the spring, total distributions to shareholders this year could reach €3.6 billion.

The engine behind this cash bounty is the core business. In the second quarter, pre-tax cash flow jumped 42% to just under €2 billion, driven largely by hefty customer prepayments. Surging demand from grid expansion and the voracious energy appetite of new AI data centres propelled Siemens Energy to a record order intake of €17.7 billion. The resulting order backlog has ballooned to €154 billion, providing exceptional earnings visibility.

That strength is reflected in the share price, which has climbed roughly 41% since the start of the year. After a brief pause, the stock traded at €172.68 on Thursday, shedding 0.83% in a session that analysts consider a healthy consolidation. The shares remain comfortably above both the 50-day moving average — by 4.93% — and the 200-day average, where the gap stands at 31.83%.

Analyst optimism continues to run high. Jefferies lifted its price target to €215 on 18 May, maintaining a “Buy” rating. Other major houses have set even higher targets: JPMorgan at €225, Goldman Sachs at €212, and Deutsche Bank and Berenberg each at €200. The consensus stands at €186.30, with eight analysts recommending “Buy” and three on “Hold.” The broader earnings trajectory supports that view: earnings per share for the second quarter came in at €0.89, up sharply from €0.50 a year earlier, and the full-year 2026 consensus estimate is €4.28, compared with €1.63 for 2025.

Dividend expectations are rising in lockstep. After a payout of €0.70 per share for fiscal 2025, the forecast for 2026 has climbed to €1.84, signalling that management sees sufficient headroom to reward shareholders even as it pours cash into the buyback.

The wild card remains the troubled wind power subsidiary Siemens Gamesa, but even there the tide is turning. The division narrowed its operating loss to €46 million in the most recent quarter and management is targeting breakeven for the full fiscal year. A successful turnaround would remove a longstanding valuation discount that has weighed on the parent company.

Looking further ahead, the German cabinet’s approval of a legislative draft for new gas-fired power plants adds a structural growth driver. The plan envisages tenders for 12 GW of capacity, with the first rounds scheduled for 2026. The plants will be built with hydrogen-ready technology — a segment where Siemens Energy’s turbine expertise positions it as a prime beneficiary.

The next major inflection point comes on 5 August 2026, when the company reports third-quarter results. By then, the market will be watching to see whether the margins from that record order pipeline are strong enough to sustain the buyback’s blistering pace through the second half of the year.