Short Sellers Tighten Grip on TUI as Oil Spikes and Cruise Surcharges Loom

BlackRock and D.E. Shaw raise short bets on TUI amid Iran-fueled oil surge; TUI passes Greek port fees to protect margins, but stock slides 21% YTD.

TUI found itself in a tug-of-war this week between a mild stock uptick on Friday and a coordinated short-selling push from two heavyweight hedge funds. While the travel group’s decision to pass Greek port fees directly to passengers helped lift the share price to €7.19, a 1.58% gain on the day, the broader picture turned ominous as BlackRock and D. E. Shaw both added to their bearish positions. The stock later slipped to €7.05, briefly dipping below €7.00 before recovering, underscoring the fragility of the recent recovery.

BlackRock Advisors raised its net short position from 0.61% to 0.70%, while D. E. Shaw increased its bet more aggressively from 1.80% to 1.92%. Both filings came on the same day, a coincidence that points to a shared concern: the spiralling cost of fuel as the Iran conflict reignites. The US military launched new airstrikes against Iran in recent days, sending Brent crude to $77.60 a barrel on Tuesday and Wednesday before a modest retreat to $77.60. For TUI, which operates its own airline fleet and multiple cruise ships, every uptick in kerosene and heavy oil prices eats directly into margins. Although the company uses hedging to smooth short-term volatility, a sustained oil rally would eventually erode profitability.

The geopolitical heat is already showing up at the pump. Diesel in Germany breached the €2-per-litre mark on 10 July, hitting €2.012, while Super E10 now costs roughly €2.060. TUI’s fuel-sensitive business model has drawn the attention of short sellers, who are betting that the stock’s year-to-date decline of 21% has further to run. The shares remain 26% below the 52-week high of €9.50 set in February 2026, even after a 15% rebound from the April low of €6.11.

Amid the headwinds, TUI is taking steps to protect its advertised prices. From the summer 2027 season, TUI Cruises will bill Greek port fees separately through onboard accounts. Depending on the destination, the charge will range from €1 to €20 per person. The move follows Greece’s decision to cap daily cruise passengers at 8,000 in Santorini and Mykonos — a constraint that makes the surcharge a more transparent way to manage demand without inflating base fares. The strategy buys the company time until 2027 to refine its pricing communication.

On the longer horizon, TUI is expanding its river cruise fleet from six to ten vessels by 2028. The newly christened TUI Aria in Frankfurt is the first of the methanol-ready newbuilds, signalling a push toward lower-emission propulsion. The Apollo group’s €6.7 billion bid for Easyjet has also injected a dose of takeover speculation into the European travel sector, offering a partial counterbalance to the cost pressures.

The technical picture offers little clarity. The 30-day annualised volatility sits at around 33%, and the relative strength index has oscillated between 47.5 and 52.4 — neutral territory — as the stock hovers below its 200-day moving average of €7.64. Market capitalisation stands at €3.58 billion. For now, the trajectory of the Iran crisis and the appetite of short sellers will determine whether TUI can break free from its downward momentum or face another leg lower.