Short Seller Alleges $97 Million Revenue Gap at Sivers Semiconductors as Pipeline Surges to $799 Million

Short-seller Ningi Research claims Sivers inflated 31% of 2025 revenue; stock up 1,800% YTD but analysts see massive valuation gap ahead of Nasdaq vote.

A blistering report from short-selling research firm Ningi Research has thrown a spotlight on Sivers Semiconductors, accusing the Swedish chipmaker of inflating its revenue picture just as the company posts record pipeline numbers and prepares for a potential Nasdaq listing. The stock, which has catapulted over 1,800% year-to-date according to some measures — the company itself cited a 1,500% surge in its latest quarterly release — is now caught between grave doubts about its existing product lineup and giddy expectations for artificial-intelligence data centre demand.

Ningi’s central accusation targets roughly 97 million Swedish kronor of Sivers’ 2025 revenue, which the firm says amounts to about 31% of total sales. Those proceeds, the short seller argues, could be linked to research subsidies or payments for products that have not yet been delivered. On the operational side, Ningi claims that mass production of the company’s indium-phosphide laser diodes has not started because of reliability issues, citing production partner WIN Semi as the source. A sector specialist quoted in the report adds that Sivers’ current offerings cannot match those of established players Lumentum and Coherent, making integration into ecosystems like Nvidia’s far more difficult.

The company’s financials for the first quarter of 2026 do little to silence the doubters. Net revenue slipped 22% year on year to 61.9 million kronor, with management blaming delayed US defence budgets and adverse currency moves. EBITDA came in at minus 25 million kronor. The contrast with the pipeline is stark: the qualified sales pipeline has swollen 77% since the start of the year to roughly $799 million, up from $453 million at the end of 2025.

Chief executive Vickram Vathulya points to booming demand in AI infrastructure and satellite communications, with multiple product launches scheduled for 2027. The market is betting heavily that those future revenues will materialise, but analysts remain deeply sceptical about the current valuation. DNB Carnegie, which updated its model on Monday, lifted its fair-value range to 12–26 kronor per share from the previous 3.50–8.50 kronor, citing an improved 2028 EBITDA estimate. Yet even the top end of that range is a fraction of the current share price around 68 kronor. Redeye held its base-case value at 6.20 kronor, leaving a chasm between street-level price targets and the stock’s actual trading level.

Sivers faces a shareholder meeting on June 15 that will decide, among other matters, whether to push ahead with a secondary listing on the Nasdaq New York. The company has already restated its 2024 and 2025 accounts under PCAOB standards, a prerequisite for US exchange approval. Ningi, however, notes that similar cross-listing ambitions have failed before.

Operationally, Sivers is pressing ahead with two new tie-ups that underscore its AI data-centre ambitions. A partnership with Jabil will develop a 1.6-terabit pluggable transceiver module for high-speed data links, while a $1.5 million development agreement with Tachyon Networks targets the fixed-wireless-access market. Meanwhile, existing links to Ayar Labs — which has publicly named Sivers as its primary laser supplier — along with supply-chain relationships with SpaceX and Broadcom via WIN Semi, offer some counterweight to the short seller’s narrative.

Private investors, fuelled by AI hype, have driven the explosive rally. But with short sellers circling and analyst price targets languishing 75% or more below the market price, the stock leaves almost no margin for operational error. The June shareholder vote will at least clarify one variable — whether the Nasdaq move finally happens or, as Ningi suspects, fizzles out once more.